Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, JosephKennedy2020, Newsom 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Climb on State of Union Speech; Joe Kennedy Rises on Response; Pence Drops on Rumor; Newsom Continues Hot Streak

Donald Trump’s Odds saw a significant increase in his odds, likely a result of his State of the Union address.  His payout dropped from last week’s 3.28X to this week’s 3.06X. These are the best odds he has had since 7/22 when it was 3.03X. His best odds this cycle were on 1/7  when he was at 2.41X.

Joseph Kennedy III delivered the Democratic response to Trump, and that increased his profile.  He was “introduced” to a more mainstream audience through many media outlets prior to and after the speech including this article from Cosmo. In two weeks he has gone from 20th place and a payout of 47X to the current 14th place and 31.3X

Mike Pence’s odds took a big hit as his payout increased from 10.8X to 12.0X. These are the worst odds he has had since the election. This was perhaps the result of a fake rumor that he will not be running as Trump’s VP in 2020. He remains second overall, as the presumed Republican choice should Trump not make it through his term or choose not to run in 2020.

Gavin Newsom remained the hottest candidate.  The Lt. Governor of CA , has announced he will be running for Governor.  There is a lot of buzz about him seeking a higher office, perhaps spread by his opponents for CA Governor.  His odds have improved this week to  24.3X from 25.3X last week, moving him from 9th place overall to 8th place.  He has seen his odds improve in 8 of the last 9 weeks.  He was in 22nd place at 50.8X before the hot streak began.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Duckworth 2020, Newsom 2020, Oprah 2020, Trump 2020

Oprah’s Odds Drop as She Denies Any Interest in Running; Trump Continues Large Lead; Newsom Continues Hot Streak; Duckworth Down

 

Oprah’s odds tanked as she announced she won’t run for President and that she “doesn’t have the DNA for it”.  Her payout went from 10.6X and 2nd place overall last week to 27.1X and 11th place overall.  Prior to her SAG speech, Oprah was in 13th place at a payout of 33.3X.

Donald Trump’s odds improved as his payout dropped from 3.31X to 3.28X.  He has ranged between 3.25X and 3.35X for the last 15 weeks.  He still has more than three times the odds of the next candidate.

Gavin Newsom continued to be a hot candidate.  He has improved 6 of the last 7 weeks.  He came in this week at 25.3X down from 32.8X.  That was enough to move him from 13th place to 9th place overall.

Tammy Duckworth will become the first sitting Senator to give birth. That negatively impacted her odds as her payout increased from 81X to 101X.  She had been slowly improving over the past few weeks.  She is now in 53rd place dropping from last week’s 43rd place.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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2020 Weekly Odds, Duckworth 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Oprah 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds See Small Decline, Lowest in 8 weeks; Oprah Speech and Media Frenzy Afterwards Shoots her Odds Up to 2nd Place; Gillibrand Continues Rise; Duckworth Moves up Slowly

Donald Trump saw a drop in odds as his payout increased from 3.28X to 3.31X.  This is the lowest he has been in 8 weeks but he remains nearly 3 times as likely as his next opponent.  It’s been 8 days since the release of the book Fire and Fury.  The President’s odds, as with most others, were also probably impacted by the rise in the odds for Oprah.

Oprah Winfrey delivered a speech on Sunday at the Golden Globes, and that sent political world and the betting world into a frenzy.  Prior to the speech, payout for betting on Oprah was at 33.3X. In September they were above 50X.  Today, as a result of that speech and speculation after, she has vaulted to 2nd place (from 13th place) ahead of Mike Pence at 10.1X.  Different sites range anywhere between 9X and 12X.  The odds are a reflection of people betting on her.  It will be interesting  to watch if the odds fall back as the if/when the media buzz wears off.

Kirsten Gillibrand continued her recent run improving from 27.6X to 23.2X.  That allowed her to move up from 10th place to 8th place.  Just six weeks ago she was in 18th place with a payout of 45.8X.

One under the radar name that has been improving consistently is Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth. She is listed as the 9th most likely female Democrat to run in this article.  She has had a small improvement in each of the last 5 weeks moving from 53rd place and 101X to the current 43rd place and 81X.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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