Category Archives: Duckworth 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Duckworth 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, Pence 2020, Rice S., Trump 2020

Trump sees slight improvement in odds but Biden still leads for 5th straight week; Harris continues her stranglehold on the VP odds while odds for Rice and Duckworth jump; Most swing states continue to lean to Biden, although AZ moves back to tossup tightening up Electoral race

Joe Biden stayed ahead of Donald Trump for a 5th straight week, although his odds saw a small drop from 1.6X to 1.63X. This in turn improved Trump’s odds slightly from 2.56X to 2.55X. The implied edge for Biden decreased from 61.5% to 61.0% still his second highest.

There were interesting movements for Mike Pence and Nikki Haley as their odds skyrocketed. Pence improved from 56.6X to 46.7X, allowing him to jump Clinton for 3rd. Haley improved from 108.8X to 93.5X. She is in 5th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

Kamala Harris continued to be the heavy favorite for VP improving from 2.1X to 2.0X. Two candidates improved their odds as Susan Rice jumped Demings for second place improving from 11.1X to 8.3X. Tammy Duckworth also saw a big improvement from 25.0X to 10.0X allowing her to jump over Bottoms and Warren for 4th place.

Here are the full odds:

There were several state polls in key states this week:

  • Wisconsin Trump +1 and Biden +8. Biden has won 3 of the last 4 polls and the average of the 4 polls is Biden +5. Keeping Wisconsin for Biden.
  • Pennsylvania Biden +5, Biden +6. Biden has won the last 4 by an average of 6. This key state appears to be safe to Biden for now.
  • North Carolina Biden +1, Biden +7. Biden has won the last 4 so we will keep it in his column
  • Arizona Biden +7, Trump +4. Although Biden has won 3 of the last 4, the Trump +4 is enough for us to move the state to a tossup.
  • Florida Biden +5 and tie. Keeping this one for Biden and he wins 3 of the 4 by an average of over 7
  • Michigan Biden +5 and has won the last four by an average of 5
  • Texas Trump +4 keeps the state for Trump

With the move of Arizona to a tossup , we are now forecasting 337 Biden 201 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Duckworth 2020, Newsom 2020, Oprah 2020, Trump 2020

Oprah’s Odds Drop as She Denies Any Interest in Running; Trump Continues Large Lead; Newsom Continues Hot Streak; Duckworth Down

 

Oprah’s odds tanked as she announced she won’t run for President and that she “doesn’t have the DNA for it”.  Her payout went from 10.6X and 2nd place overall last week to 27.1X and 11th place overall.  Prior to her SAG speech, Oprah was in 13th place at a payout of 33.3X.

Donald Trump’s odds improved as his payout dropped from 3.31X to 3.28X.  He has ranged between 3.25X and 3.35X for the last 15 weeks.  He still has more than three times the odds of the next candidate.

Gavin Newsom continued to be a hot candidate.  He has improved 6 of the last 7 weeks.  He came in this week at 25.3X down from 32.8X.  That was enough to move him from 13th place to 9th place overall.

Tammy Duckworth will become the first sitting Senator to give birth. That negatively impacted her odds as her payout increased from 81X to 101X.  She had been slowly improving over the past few weeks.  She is now in 53rd place dropping from last week’s 43rd place.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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2020 Weekly Odds, Duckworth 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Oprah 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds See Small Decline, Lowest in 8 weeks; Oprah Speech and Media Frenzy Afterwards Shoots her Odds Up to 2nd Place; Gillibrand Continues Rise; Duckworth Moves up Slowly

Donald Trump saw a drop in odds as his payout increased from 3.28X to 3.31X.  This is the lowest he has been in 8 weeks but he remains nearly 3 times as likely as his next opponent.  It’s been 8 days since the release of the book Fire and Fury.  The President’s odds, as with most others, were also probably impacted by the rise in the odds for Oprah.

Oprah Winfrey delivered a speech on Sunday at the Golden Globes, and that sent political world and the betting world into a frenzy.  Prior to the speech, payout for betting on Oprah was at 33.3X. In September they were above 50X.  Today, as a result of that speech and speculation after, she has vaulted to 2nd place (from 13th place) ahead of Mike Pence at 10.1X.  Different sites range anywhere between 9X and 12X.  The odds are a reflection of people betting on her.  It will be interesting  to watch if the odds fall back as the if/when the media buzz wears off.

Kirsten Gillibrand continued her recent run improving from 27.6X to 23.2X.  That allowed her to move up from 10th place to 8th place.  Just six weeks ago she was in 18th place with a payout of 45.8X.

One under the radar name that has been improving consistently is Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth. She is listed as the 9th most likely female Democrat to run in this article.  She has had a small improvement in each of the last 5 weeks moving from 53rd place and 101X to the current 43rd place and 81X.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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