Joe Biden stayed ahead of Donald Trump for a 5th straight week, although his odds saw a small drop from 1.6X to 1.63X. This in turn improved Trump’s odds slightly from 2.56X to 2.55X. The implied edge for Biden decreased from 61.5% to 61.0% still his second highest.
There were interesting movements for Mike Pence and Nikki Haley as their odds skyrocketed. Pence improved from 56.6X to 46.7X, allowing him to jump Clinton for 3rd. Haley improved from 108.8X to 93.5X. She is in 5th place overall.
Here are the full odds:
Kamala Harris continued to be the heavy favorite for VP improving from 2.1X to 2.0X. Two candidates improved their odds as Susan Rice jumped Demings for second place improving from 11.1X to 8.3X. Tammy Duckworth also saw a big improvement from 25.0X to 10.0X allowing her to jump over Bottoms and Warren for 4th place.
Here are the full odds:
There were several state polls in key states this week:
- Wisconsin Trump +1 and Biden +8. Biden has won 3 of the last 4 polls and the average of the 4 polls is Biden +5. Keeping Wisconsin for Biden.
- Pennsylvania Biden +5, Biden +6. Biden has won the last 4 by an average of 6. This key state appears to be safe to Biden for now.
- North Carolina Biden +1, Biden +7. Biden has won the last 4 so we will keep it in his column
- Arizona Biden +7, Trump +4. Although Biden has won 3 of the last 4, the Trump +4 is enough for us to move the state to a tossup.
- Florida Biden +5 and tie. Keeping this one for Biden and he wins 3 of the 4 by an average of over 7
- Michigan Biden +5 and has won the last four by an average of 5
- Texas Trump +4 keeps the state for Trump
With the move of Arizona to a tossup , we are now forecasting 337 Biden 201 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:
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