Donald Trump’s Odds saw a significant increase in his odds, likely a result of his State of the Union address. His payout dropped from last week’s 3.28X to this week’s 3.06X. These are the best odds he has had since 7/22 when it was 3.03X. His best odds this cycle were on 1/7 when he was at 2.41X.
Joseph Kennedy III delivered the Democratic response to Trump, and that increased his profile. He was “introduced” to a more mainstream audience through many media outlets prior to and after the speech including this article from Cosmo. In two weeks he has gone from 20th place and a payout of 47X to the current 14th place and 31.3X
Gavin Newsom remained the hottest candidate. The Lt. Governor of CA , has announced he will be running for Governor. There is a lot of buzz about him seeking a higher office, perhaps spread by his opponents for CA Governor. His odds have improved this week to 24.3X from 25.3X last week, moving him from 9th place overall to 8th place. He has seen his odds improve in 8 of the last 9 weeks. He was in 22nd place at 50.8X before the hot streak began.
Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop for the 7th straight week as the payout increased from 3.35X to 3.39X. The probability dropped to 17.7%, but is still more than the next three candidates combined.
Bernie Sanders’ odds continued to rise. His payout decreased from 18.2X to 17.7X. That was enough for him to jump into 4th over Michelle Obama. This is the highest he has been this cycle. He was asked this week about 2020 and replied with “People are sick and tired of it” (the never ending election cycle)
Joseph Kennedy reached a new high with his payout dropping from 40.1X to 38.3X. That was enough for him to rise to 13th place. He was in 19th place merely three weeks ago.
Ted Cruz’s odds improved with his payout decreasing from 61.7X to 56.3X. That is the best they have been in 7 weeks. He is currently in 30th place (Lower than prior weeks simply because more names have been added to the board)
The trend has continued of Donald Trump having a large but shrinking lead: The payout is now up to 3X from 2.9X. It was at 2.4X pre-inauguration. The probability dropped from 21.6% to 21.4%. It was at 26.9% pre-inauguration.
Bernie Sanders continues to stay relevant, with his payout declining from 23X to 22.9X. That was enough for him to jump into a tie for 6th place with Cory Booker.
Nikki Haley continues to increase her profile through her UN position. Her payout has dropped from 56.3X to 53.6X. That puts her in 24th place.
Joseph P Kennedy joined the list at 23rd place with a payout of 55X. This week he moves up to 21st place with a payout of 45.8X.
