The trend has continued of Donald Trump having a large but shrinking lead: The payout is now up to 3X from 2.9X. It was at 2.4X pre-inauguration. The probability dropped from 21.6% to 21.4%. It was at 26.9% pre-inauguration.
Bernie Sanders continues to stay relevant, with his payout declining from 23X to 22.9X. That was enough for him to jump into a tie for 6th place with Cory Booker.
Nikki Haley continues to increase her profile through her UN position. Her payout has dropped from 56.3X to 53.6X. That puts her in 24th place.
Joseph P Kennedy joined the list at 23rd place with a payout of 55X. This week he moves up to 21st place with a payout of 45.8X.
Donald Trump continued to have a large lead (nearly 4 times the probability of Elizabeth Warren, the closest Democrat to him). That lead continues to shrink however. His probability is down from 22.2% last week to 21.6% this week. It peaked just before the inauguration at 26.9%. $1 on Trump currently pays out an average of $2.9.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton seemed to be raising her profile a bit this past week with some public statements. That did not help her odds. Her payout increased from 21.4X to 21.9X. Her odds were highest 4 weeks ago when the payout was at 20.6X. She remains in 5th place.
Cory Booker rebounded from his drop last week. He jumps over Bernie Sanders for 6th place as his payout decreased from 23.1X to 22.9X.
The biggest mover of the week was Nikki Haley whose profile increased with her speech in the U.N on Syria. Her payoff dropped from 64.5X to 56.3X. That was enough to move her from 27th place to 24th place.
Trump continues to have a big lead but his odds have now dropped for five straight weeks. Back in the middle of January, Trump’s odds were at 26.9%. He is now at 24.5%. His payout is now at 2.6X, up from 2.5X. That is the tied for his highest payout since re-election.
Two movers in the top 10 were Cory Booker and Paul Ryan. Paul Ryan hopped over Bernie Sanders to get back to 7th place. His payout dropped from 26.9X to 25.6X. Cory Booker remained in 6th place but his payout dropped from 23.2X to 22.2X, his lowest since the beginning of January.
One debut this week was NY Mayor Bill de Blasio, who made his debut in 18th place. His payout is at 37.5X.
