Category Archives: de Blasio 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Castro 2020, de Blasio 2020, Delaney 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Inslee 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

First debate causes shakeup as Harris comes away the big winner at Biden’s expense. Debate and weeks of momentum finally have Warren move ahead of Sanders. Trump continues to cruise near all time highs

The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.

Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.

The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.

The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.

In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.

Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:

Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bullock 2020, de Blasio 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump reaches another high in odds despite polls showing top Dems ahead; Biden’s momentum continues doubling odds in 6 weeks; A hot Warren jumps a once hot Beto; De Blasio becomes 23rd Dem candidate

Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week at 2.10X up from last week’s previous high of 2.18X. He has now either been tied or achieved a new high the last 12 weeks. The odds have achieved these highs despite recent polls, including this one from Fox News, showing the top 3 Democrats would beat Trump head to head.

The hottest name continues to be Joe Biden. He achieved another new high improving from 6.11X to 5.84X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks, nearly doubling his odds since. He was at 10.7X just 6 weeks ago. Biden has been ramping up his campaign including making Philadelphia (with Pennsylvania a must win state) his headquarters.

The other name for the Democrats gaining momentum is Elizabeth Warren. She improved once again from 23.6X to 22.7X. She has now improved for four straight weeks and just passed Beto for 6th place. Her growth seems to be coming with progressives at the expense of Bernie Sanders. Sanders is still ahead of her in 3rd place with nearly 3 times the odds (7.69X).

What’s another week without more candidates for the Democrats. This week saw candidates #22 and 23. First came Montana Governor Steve Bullock. Bullock, whose credentials include being a Democratic Governor in a Red state, didn’t make much of a splash. His odds actually dropped from 141.4X to 145.8X. He is in 35th place overall.

Next came NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. His announcement had a bigger impact in the odds. He rocketed from 166.9X to 124.3X moving him up from 45th to 21st place.

Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, de Blasio 2020, Ryan 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Updated Election Odds: Trump Continues with Large but Decreasing Lead; Ryan and Booker up; de Blasio Makes Debut

Trump continues to have a big lead but his odds have now dropped for five straight weeks.  Back in the middle of January, Trump’s odds were at 26.9%.  He is now at 24.5%.  His payout is now at 2.6X, up from 2.5X.  That is the tied for his highest payout since re-election.

Two movers in the top 10 were Cory Booker and Paul Ryan.  Paul Ryan hopped over Bernie Sanders to get back to 7th place.  His payout dropped from 26.9X to 25.6X.  Cory Booker remained in 6th place but his payout dropped from 23.2X to 22.2X, his lowest since the beginning of January.

One debut this week was NY Mayor Bill de Blasio, who made his debut in 18th place. His payout is at 37.5X.

Here is a list of all the odds:

 

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