Category Archives: Sanders 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Franken 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Continues to Edge Higher; Sanders Strong After NH Poll; Clinton Improves Despite Saying She Will not Run; Franken up into Top 25

In what looks like a replay of the 2016 election, three of the larger improvements  this week were from Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton.

Trump’s odds saw another improvement, this time with the payout dropping from last week’s 3.38X to this week’s 3.33X.  These are the best odds he has had in 9 weeks.

Bernie Sanders saw his odds improve to a new high as his payout dropped from 18.3X to 17.7X.  Although a new NH poll showed he is currently the favorite for the Democratic nomination from that state, he is  still behind Elizabeth Warren (11.9X) and Kamala Harris (16.4X) as far as odds for the nomination.

Hillary Clinton’s odd’s improved despite her saying she will not run again.The payout improved from 35.5X to 34.0X, her highest in 6 weeks. This moved her up one spot from 13th place to 12th place.

Al Franken had the biggest move for the week as his payout improved from 57.1X to 49.5X.  This was enough to move him from 30th place to 23rd place.  That is the highest he has been at this entire cycle.  Franken made news this week as he grilled Jeff Sessions in the Senate hearings.

Here is the full list of odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, JosephKennedy2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Sanders Jumps into 4th Place; Kennedy Reaches New High; Cruz Highest in 7 Weeks

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop for the 7th straight week as the payout increased from 3.35X to 3.39X.  The probability dropped to 17.7%, but is still more than the next three candidates combined.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued to rise.  His payout decreased from 18.2X to 17.7X.  That was enough for him to jump into 4th over Michelle Obama.  This is the highest he has been this cycle.  He was asked this week about 2020 and replied with “People are sick and tired of it” (the never ending election cycle)

Joseph Kennedy reached a new high with his payout dropping from 40.1X to 38.3X.  That was enough for him to rise to 13th place.  He was in 19th place merely three weeks ago.

Ted Cruz’s odds improved with his payout decreasing from 61.7X to 56.3X.  That is the best they have been in 7 weeks.  He is currently in 30th place (Lower than prior weeks simply because more names have been added to the board)

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 764

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Who are the Top Democratic Candidates

For the 6th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline.  This time from 3.31X to 3.35X.  Donald Trump’s odds were at 2.98X on 7/15. That is a 13% increase in payout since.  He is still more than 2 1/2 times more likely than the number two candidate, Mike Pence.

Other than Trump’s small drop, there was very little change. I’ll use this lack of 2020 news week as an opportunity to talk about who the top Democratic candidates are. (We profiled the Republicans last week)

The top 2020 Democratic candidate from day one has been Elizabeth Warren.  Her odds started at 11.1X and are currently at 10.6X.  She peaked at 9.7X at the beginning of June.

Michelle Obama has been the consistent #2 Democrat since the elections.  Her odds have declined over time however.  She started at 13.7X  and reached 12.1X a couple of weeks later.  Her odds have drifted down however, as she has been absent from the public eye.  She is currently at 17.6X.

Bernie Sanders is currently the third leading Democrat.  He started the cycle in 8th place overall after finishing second in the 2016 Democratic Primary.  He then dropped very quickly to 18th place by the end of 2016.  Since then he has worked his way up from a 33.9X payout to the current 18.2X which puts him in 5th overall.

Kamala Harris seems to have the most momentum in the Democratic party.  She started out in 16th place overall and was in 18th place at the beginning of the year.  Since then she has exploded and is currently in 4th place among the Democrats and 6th place overall.  Her payout was at 36.4X in January and is currently at 20.4X.

Some other top Democrats:

  • Joe Biden at 5th place in June (20.9X) and is now 8th place overall at 25.7X
  • Cory Booker started the cycle at 5th place (19.6X) and is now in 9th place at 26.5X
  • Hillary Clinton was in 5th place from the end of January to the beginning of May. peaking at 20.6X in the middle of March.  She is currently in 11th place at 28.0X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 737