For the 6th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline. This time from 3.31X to 3.35X. Donald Trump’s odds were at 2.98X on 7/15. That is a 13% increase in payout since. He is still more than 2 1/2 times more likely than the number two candidate, Mike Pence.
Other than Trump’s small drop, there was very little change. I’ll use this lack of 2020 news week as an opportunity to talk about who the top Democratic candidates are. (We profiled the Republicans last week)
The top 2020 Democratic candidate from day one has been Elizabeth Warren. Her odds started at 11.1X and are currently at 10.6X. She peaked at 9.7X at the beginning of June.
Michelle Obama has been the consistent #2 Democrat since the elections. Her odds have declined over time however. She started at 13.7X and reached 12.1X a couple of weeks later. Her odds have drifted down however, as she has been absent from the public eye. She is currently at 17.6X.
Bernie Sanders is currently the third leading Democrat. He started the cycle in 8th place overall after finishing second in the 2016 Democratic Primary. He then dropped very quickly to 18th place by the end of 2016. Since then he has worked his way up from a 33.9X payout to the current 18.2X which puts him in 5th overall.
Kamala Harris seems to have the most momentum in the Democratic party. She started out in 16th place overall and was in 18th place at the beginning of the year. Since then she has exploded and is currently in 4th place among the Democrats and 6th place overall. Her payout was at 36.4X in January and is currently at 20.4X.
Some other top Democrats:
- Joe Biden at 5th place in June (20.9X) and is now 8th place overall at 25.7X
- Cory Booker started the cycle at 5th place (19.6X) and is now in 9th place at 26.5X
- Hillary Clinton was in 5th place from the end of January to the beginning of May. peaking at 20.6X in the middle of March. She is currently in 11th place at 28.0X.
Here are the full odds:
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