After a small drop the prior week, Donald Trump’s odds rebounded from 2.79X to 2.77X, which is the same as two weeks ago and the highest since the middle of March ’17. They are still a bit away from the 2.41X high achieved on 1/7/17.
Bernie Sanders’ odds have been rising quietly over the last 5 weeks. This week they increased from 12.5X to 11.9X. That was enough for him to jump Kamala Harris (12.4X) for second place overall. Harris had held that spot for four weeks after jumping over Elizabeth Warren.
For the second straight week, Mike Pence’s odds dropped. This time the payout went from 12.0X to 12.5X. That was another new low for the VP. The change in odds was enough to drop him behind Elizabeth Warren and into 3rd place.
Pence’s drop once again helped Donald Trump. His odds improved for the third week in a row as his payout moved from 3.06X to 3.04X, his best odds since 7/22. His odds are now more than 4 times better than his next competitor: Elizabeth Warren.
Julian Castro stated “I have every interest in running” for president, to NBC News. Interestingly, he saw a drop in odds from a payout of 42.5X to 44.5X. That was enough for him to slide from 18th place to 24th place.
Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight drop as his payout increased from 3.28X to 3.30X. These are his lowest odds in five weeks. He remains more than three times as likely as the next competitor.
Bernie Sanders’ odds improved as his payout dropped from 18.0X to 16.9X. Although Sanders remains in fifth place overall, these are the best odds he has had this entire cycle.
The hottest name of the last few weeks continued to be Kirsten Gillibrand. The Senator from NY has seen an improvement for three straight weeks driven by her stance against sexual assault. Her payout dropped this week from 36.4X to 33.3X. She was at 47.7X just four weeks ago.
One unknown that made a move is Gavin Newsom. The 50 year old Democrat is currently the Lt. Governor of CA. Prior to that he was the mayor of SF. A recent poll shows him as the leader to become the governor of CA in 2018. Newsom’s payout was at 50.8X two weeks ago and has since improved to 37.1X. That has allowed him to jump up from 22nd place to 14th place.
