Category Archives: Newsom 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, JosephKennedy2020, Newsom 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Climb on State of Union Speech; Joe Kennedy Rises on Response; Pence Drops on Rumor; Newsom Continues Hot Streak

Donald Trump’s Odds saw a significant increase in his odds, likely a result of his State of the Union address.  His payout dropped from last week’s 3.28X to this week’s 3.06X. These are the best odds he has had since 7/22 when it was 3.03X. His best odds this cycle were on 1/7  when he was at 2.41X.

Joseph Kennedy III delivered the Democratic response to Trump, and that increased his profile.  He was “introduced” to a more mainstream audience through many media outlets prior to and after the speech including this article from Cosmo. In two weeks he has gone from 20th place and a payout of 47X to the current 14th place and 31.3X

Mike Pence’s odds took a big hit as his payout increased from 10.8X to 12.0X. These are the worst odds he has had since the election. This was perhaps the result of a fake rumor that he will not be running as Trump’s VP in 2020. He remains second overall, as the presumed Republican choice should Trump not make it through his term or choose not to run in 2020.

Gavin Newsom remained the hottest candidate.  The Lt. Governor of CA , has announced he will be running for Governor.  There is a lot of buzz about him seeking a higher office, perhaps spread by his opponents for CA Governor.  His odds have improved this week to  24.3X from 25.3X last week, moving him from 9th place overall to 8th place.  He has seen his odds improve in 8 of the last 9 weeks.  He was in 22nd place at 50.8X before the hot streak began.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Duckworth 2020, Newsom 2020, Oprah 2020, Trump 2020

Oprah’s Odds Drop as She Denies Any Interest in Running; Trump Continues Large Lead; Newsom Continues Hot Streak; Duckworth Down

 

Oprah’s odds tanked as she announced she won’t run for President and that she “doesn’t have the DNA for it”.  Her payout went from 10.6X and 2nd place overall last week to 27.1X and 11th place overall.  Prior to her SAG speech, Oprah was in 13th place at a payout of 33.3X.

Donald Trump’s odds improved as his payout dropped from 3.31X to 3.28X.  He has ranged between 3.25X and 3.35X for the last 15 weeks.  He still has more than three times the odds of the next candidate.

Gavin Newsom continued to be a hot candidate.  He has improved 6 of the last 7 weeks.  He came in this week at 25.3X down from 32.8X.  That was enough to move him from 13th place to 9th place overall.

Tammy Duckworth will become the first sitting Senator to give birth. That negatively impacted her odds as her payout increased from 81X to 101X.  She had been slowly improving over the past few weeks.  She is now in 53rd place dropping from last week’s 43rd place.

Here are the full odds:

 

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2020 Weekly Odds, Gillibrand 2020, Newsom 2020, Romney 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Flat to Last Week even with the Release of Fire and Fury; Gillibrand Jumps into Top 10; Newsom Continues Hot Streak; Romney Odds Show Signs of Life on Senate Speculation

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week even as the controversial behind the scenes book Fire and Fury was released on Friday.  The payout continued to be at 3.28X and has now been between 3.25X and 3.30X for the last 11 weeks.

The hot name continued to be Kirsten Gillibrand. Speculation that the Senator is running has been increasing as she takes actions that would earn her favor with the left wing of the party. Her payout is now at 27.6X down from last week’s 33.8X.  That was enough to move her from 12th place to 10th place.  Her payout was at 45.8X and she was in 19th place 5 weeks ago before calling for the resignations of Senator Franken and President Trump due to sexual allegations.

Another name that has been improving the last few weeks is Gavin Newsom.  The current Lt. Governor of CA has a payout of 32.2X and moved up from 13th place to 12th place.  Five weeks ago he was at 50.8X and in 22nd place.  This week he took shots at Trump’s decision to open up offshore oil exploration.

Mitt Romney saw an improvement in odds this week as his payout decreased from 65.5X to 62.2X and he moved up from 36th place to 32nd place.  Orrin Hatch decided not to run for re-election in Utah opening up an opportunity for Romney to get back into politics in the Senate in 2018 and possibly challenge Trump in a primary in 2020.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 717