Category Archives: Biden 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Who are the Top Democratic Candidates

For the 6th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline.  This time from 3.31X to 3.35X.  Donald Trump’s odds were at 2.98X on 7/15. That is a 13% increase in payout since.  He is still more than 2 1/2 times more likely than the number two candidate, Mike Pence.

Other than Trump’s small drop, there was very little change. I’ll use this lack of 2020 news week as an opportunity to talk about who the top Democratic candidates are. (We profiled the Republicans last week)

The top 2020 Democratic candidate from day one has been Elizabeth Warren.  Her odds started at 11.1X and are currently at 10.6X.  She peaked at 9.7X at the beginning of June.

Michelle Obama has been the consistent #2 Democrat since the elections.  Her odds have declined over time however.  She started at 13.7X  and reached 12.1X a couple of weeks later.  Her odds have drifted down however, as she has been absent from the public eye.  She is currently at 17.6X.

Bernie Sanders is currently the third leading Democrat.  He started the cycle in 8th place overall after finishing second in the 2016 Democratic Primary.  He then dropped very quickly to 18th place by the end of 2016.  Since then he has worked his way up from a 33.9X payout to the current 18.2X which puts him in 5th overall.

Kamala Harris seems to have the most momentum in the Democratic party.  She started out in 16th place overall and was in 18th place at the beginning of the year.  Since then she has exploded and is currently in 4th place among the Democrats and 6th place overall.  Her payout was at 36.4X in January and is currently at 20.4X.

Some other top Democrats:

  • Joe Biden at 5th place in June (20.9X) and is now 8th place overall at 25.7X
  • Cory Booker started the cycle at 5th place (19.6X) and is now in 9th place at 26.5X
  • Hillary Clinton was in 5th place from the end of January to the beginning of May. peaking at 20.6X in the middle of March.  She is currently in 11th place at 28.0X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 626

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Franken 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Steady; Kamala Harris into Top 10; Franken up, Biden down

For the 9th straight week, Donald Trump’s payout remained at 3.0X with his probability at 20.4%.  That is once again equivalent to the probability for the next four competitors combined.

Kamala Harris was the hottest name on the week as she continues to meet with Democratic power brokers and donors. Her payout dropped from 28.6X to 25.2X.  That was enough for her to jump over Paul Ryan for 10th place overall.  Her payout was over 30X just four weeks ago.

Al Franken continues to be another hot name.  His payout dropped from 63X to 59X.  He was at 71.7X five weeks ago before releasing his book and embarking on a bit of a promotional tour.  He is currently in 29th place.

One big drop was Joe Biden who’s payout moved from 23.3X to 24.2X.  This is the worst he has been in 9 weeks.  He was asked about running in 2020 by Katie Couric and dodged the question on Saturday.  He remains in 7th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 615

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Zuckerberg 2020

Trump Maintains Large Lead; Biden and Zuckerberg Continue to be Hot with Launch of PACs; Klobuchar Turns it Around

Donald’s Trump remained fairly flat as his probability saw a slight dip from 20.7% to 20.5%.  The payout remained at 3.0X, flat to last week.  He had a big drop two weeks ago with the announcement on a special counsel but then rebounded last week. He has similar probability as the next four candidates combined.

Joe Biden fueled speculation of a run by launching a PAC. This helped him keep his hot streak with his payout dropping from 21.5X to 20.9X.  That is the lowest payout (highest odds) he has been at.  He has improved over the last 8 weeks .  He began that stretch with a payout of 291X, and has moved from 9th place to the current 5th place.

Another hot name has been Mark Zuckerberg.  A new PAC (that he has nothing to do with) was formed with the goal of convincing the Facebook founder to  run. He moves into the the top 10 from 12th place.  He was in 16th place 5 weeks ago and in 50th place beginning of the year.  His payout has shrunk from over 100X at the beginning of the year to last week’s 32.7X and this week’s 28.9X.

Amy Klobuchar’s odds improved with her payout decreasing from 39.1X to 36.5X.  This was an improvement from her worst week as far as odds. Most think she will run in 2020, and that certainly fits with her spending some time in Iowa a few weeks ago. She is now in 16th place and has ranged between 12th place back in January and 19th place last week.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 630