Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week coming in at 3.28X. He remains more than three times more likely to win the presidency as any candidate, although his odds have fallen over the last year. At this time last year, Trump was at 2.58X, or 21% more likely.
The big mover on the week was once again Kirsten Gillibrand. The Senator from NY called for the President to resign this week and the President bit the bait and took her on. That increased her profile once again and likewise her odds. This week she improved from 45.8X to 36.4X. That moved her from 18th place to 12th place.
Marco Rubio stated he will not support the tax bill without changes to the child credit. Many see this as a play to improve his odds for 2020. His odds improved from 47.1X to 42.6X. That moved him from 20th place to 19th place (4th among Republicans).
Donald Trump’s odds rebounded this week after two weeks of declines. His payout dropped from 3.34X to 3.31X. His odds have been in a range of 3.20X and 3.46X for the last 15 weeks.
Kamala Harris continued to be the hottest name on the Democratic side. Her odds once again improved as her payout decreased from 15.0X to 14.6X. She remains in 4th place . Harris comes up as the top alternative as the new face for the Democrats as this essay illustrates.
Joe Biden has seen his odds improve the last two weeks. This week they moved from 26.0X to 24.7X, but he remained in 7th place. A poll released this week showed Biden would be ahead of Trump 46 to 35. The interesting thing is a “generic Democrat” would be ahead by a larger margin 48 to 34.
Al Franken’s odds tanked with the sexual misconduct allegations. The payout increased from 45.9X to 51.3X which dropped him from 18th place to 22nd place. He had been a hot name prior to this moving from 30th place to 18th place in 5 weeks.
For the second straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a small decline. This week it was from 3.27X to 3.34X. It appears his trip to Asia didn’t help with these odds being the lowest in four weeks.
Al Franken was another Democrat to see his odds jump. He moved from 21st place to 18th place as his payout dropped from 49.5X to 45.9X. This is the highest he has been this cycle.
