Biden matched his all time high from four weeks ago at 1.60X
Trump near his recent low at 2.55X
Implied odds for Biden now at 61.4%
Here’s the overall odds and trend:
On the VP side Harris’ lead shrinks with Rice and Bass showing the biggest improvements. Here’s the VP Odds:
Below are the electoral projections from 6 different sources. The average currently is 314 Biden to 224 for Trump
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Views – 604Joe Biden held the lead for a 6th straight week, although for a second straight week Trump closed on that lead. Biden’s odds dropped from 1.63X to 1.65X, his lowest in three weeks. Donald Trump improved from 2.55X to 2.46X, his highest in three weeks. The implied head to head edge to Biden dropped from 61.0% to 59.8%.
Kanye West announced he would be running last weekend, and makes his return to the odds at 78.6X, enough for 5th place, behind Clinton and Pence. His previous high was all the way back in January 2017 at 101X.
Here are the full odds:
On the VP side, Kamala Harris continued to have a large lead, although her odds dropped from 2.0X to 2.2X. Two names have been hot the last two weeks. Susan Rice is in second place improving from 11.1X two weeks ago to 8.3X last week to 6.1X this week. Tammy Duckworth is the other hot name improving from 40.0X three weeks ago to 10.0X last week, to the current 7.4X.
Here are the full odds:
Very few polls took place this week
As a result, we are not making changes and holding the forecast at 337 Biden 201 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:
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Views – 690Joe Biden stayed ahead of Donald Trump for a 5th straight week, although his odds saw a small drop from 1.6X to 1.63X. This in turn improved Trump’s odds slightly from 2.56X to 2.55X. The implied edge for Biden decreased from 61.5% to 61.0% still his second highest.
There were interesting movements for Mike Pence and Nikki Haley as their odds skyrocketed. Pence improved from 56.6X to 46.7X, allowing him to jump Clinton for 3rd. Haley improved from 108.8X to 93.5X. She is in 5th place overall.
Here are the full odds:
Kamala Harris continued to be the heavy favorite for VP improving from 2.1X to 2.0X. Two candidates improved their odds as Susan Rice jumped Demings for second place improving from 11.1X to 8.3X. Tammy Duckworth also saw a big improvement from 25.0X to 10.0X allowing her to jump over Bottoms and Warren for 4th place.
Here are the full odds:
There were several state polls in key states this week:
With the move of Arizona to a tossup , we are now forecasting 337 Biden 201 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:
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Views – 616