Joe Biden held the lead for a 6th straight week, although for a second straight week Trump closed on that lead. Biden’s odds dropped from 1.63X to 1.65X, his lowest in three weeks. Donald Trump improved from 2.55X to 2.46X, his highest in three weeks. The implied head to head edge to Biden dropped from 61.0% to 59.8%.
Kanye West announced he would be running last weekend, and makes his return to the odds at 78.6X, enough for 5th place, behind Clinton and Pence. His previous high was all the way back in January 2017 at 101X.
Here are the full odds:
On the VP side, Kamala Harris continued to have a large lead, although her odds dropped from 2.0X to 2.2X. Two names have been hot the last two weeks. Susan Rice is in second place improving from 11.1X two weeks ago to 8.3X last week to 6.1X this week. Tammy Duckworth is the other hot name improving from 40.0X three weeks ago to 10.0X last week, to the current 7.4X.
Here are the full odds:
Very few polls took place this week
- Maine Biden +11, that’s two strong polls for Biden
- Pennsylvania Biden +5 as he continues his streak in this important state
- Alaska Trump +3, narrow edge but will keep state for Trump
- North Carolina Biden +4, keeping his streak in the important state
As a result, we are not making changes and holding the forecast at 337 Biden 201 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:
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