Category Archives: Warren 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Who are the Top Democratic Candidates

For the 6th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline.  This time from 3.31X to 3.35X.  Donald Trump’s odds were at 2.98X on 7/15. That is a 13% increase in payout since.  He is still more than 2 1/2 times more likely than the number two candidate, Mike Pence.

Other than Trump’s small drop, there was very little change. I’ll use this lack of 2020 news week as an opportunity to talk about who the top Democratic candidates are. (We profiled the Republicans last week)

The top 2020 Democratic candidate from day one has been Elizabeth Warren.  Her odds started at 11.1X and are currently at 10.6X.  She peaked at 9.7X at the beginning of June.

Michelle Obama has been the consistent #2 Democrat since the elections.  Her odds have declined over time however.  She started at 13.7X  and reached 12.1X a couple of weeks later.  Her odds have drifted down however, as she has been absent from the public eye.  She is currently at 17.6X.

Bernie Sanders is currently the third leading Democrat.  He started the cycle in 8th place overall after finishing second in the 2016 Democratic Primary.  He then dropped very quickly to 18th place by the end of 2016.  Since then he has worked his way up from a 33.9X payout to the current 18.2X which puts him in 5th overall.

Kamala Harris seems to have the most momentum in the Democratic party.  She started out in 16th place overall and was in 18th place at the beginning of the year.  Since then she has exploded and is currently in 4th place among the Democrats and 6th place overall.  Her payout was at 36.4X in January and is currently at 20.4X.

Some other top Democrats:

  • Joe Biden at 5th place in June (20.9X) and is now 8th place overall at 25.7X
  • Cory Booker started the cycle at 5th place (19.6X) and is now in 9th place at 26.5X
  • Hillary Clinton was in 5th place from the end of January to the beginning of May. peaking at 20.6X in the middle of March.  She is currently in 11th place at 28.0X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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2020 Weekly Odds, Johnson 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated Election Odds: Trump’s Odds Take a Hit with Special Counsel; Pence and Warren Benefit; Dwayne Johnson with Big Jump

Donald Trump’s reelection odds took a big drop this week with the appointment of a special counsel.  He is still the odds-on favorite having a higher probability than the next three candidates combined.  The payout for putting money on trump increases from 3.1X to 3.3X and his probability dropped from 20.5% to 19.4%.  It began at 30.0% shortly after his election.

Trump’s drop helped his closest competition in 2020.  Mike Pence, who has been in 2nd place the entire time improves from 7.4% to 7.6%.  His payout decreases from 8.6X to 8.3X, his lowest to date.  There was increased talk among some Republicans of Pence being a better path forward to getting the Republican agenda through.

Elizabeth Warren, who has been in 3rd place and the Democratic leader in odds, also improved.  Her odds improved from 6.1% to 6.5%.  Her payout dropped from 10.4X to 9.8X.

The biggest mover of the week was wrestler/actor Dwayne Johnson. He would not rule out running in his appearance on the Tonight Show and a PPP Poll showed him leading Trump head to head 42 to 37.  He moved from 41st place last week with a payout of 90X to 24th place with a payout of 53.2X.  He was as high as 113.5X in the middle of January.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updated please follow me at @2016ElectOdds

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2020 Weekly Odds, Castro 2020, Oprah 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated Election Odds: Trump’s Large Odds See a Small Decline; Warren and Castro’s Odds Improve; Oprah Moves Up to 20th Place

After a small bounce last week, Donald Trump’s odds resumed their slow decline.  His odds are still the highest at 21.3%, but down from 21.6% last week and the lowest since his election.  The payout is back up to 3.0X from 2.9X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the top Democrat and in 3rd place overall.  Her odds increased to 6.1% as her payoff dropped from 10.6X to 10.4X.  This is the highest she has been since the middle of March.

Julian Castro was another Democrat that saw an increase.  He moved from 14th place to 13th place with his payout dropping from 35.1X to 33.6X.  This is the lowest payout (best odds) he has been since the beginning of March.

Oprah Winfrey also saw a jump this week.  She moved from 22nd place to 20th place as her payout dropped from 48.8X to 42.0X.  These are the best odds she has had since making her debut in the middle of March with a payout of 58.3X.

Here are the full odds:

For updated please follow me at @2016ElectOdds

 

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