Donald Trump’s reelection odds took a big drop this week with the appointment of a special counsel.  He is still the odds-on favorite having a higher probability than the next three candidates combined.  The payout for putting money on trump increases from 3.1X to 3.3X and his probability dropped from 20.5% to 19.4%.  It began at 30.0% shortly after his election.

Trump’s drop helped his closest competition in 2020.  Mike Pence, who has been in 2nd place the entire time improves from 7.4% to 7.6%.  His payout decreases from 8.6X to 8.3X, his lowest to date.  There was increased talk among some Republicans of Pence being a better path forward to getting the Republican agenda through.

Elizabeth Warren, who has been in 3rd place and the Democratic leader in odds, also improved.  Her odds improved from 6.1% to 6.5%.  Her payout dropped from 10.4X to 9.8X.

The biggest mover of the week was wrestler/actor Dwayne Johnson. He would not rule out running in his appearance on the Tonight Show and a PPP Poll showed him leading Trump head to head 42 to 37.  He moved from 41st place last week with a payout of 90X to 24th place with a payout of 53.2X.  He was as high as 113.5X in the middle of January.

Here are the full odds:

For updated please follow me at @2016ElectOdds

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