Donald Trump continued to have a large lead (nearly 4 times the probability of Elizabeth Warren, the closest Democrat to him). That lead continues to shrink however. His probability is down from 22.2% last week to 21.6% this week. It peaked just before the inauguration at 26.9%. $1 on Trump currently pays out an average of $2.9.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton seemed to be raising her profile a bit this past week with some public statements. That did not help her odds. Her payout increased from 21.4X to 21.9X. Her odds were highest 4 weeks ago when the payout was at 20.6X. She remains in 5th place.
Cory Booker rebounded from his drop last week. He jumps over Bernie Sanders for 6th place as his payout decreased from 23.1X to 22.9X.
The biggest mover of the week was Nikki Haley whose profile increased with her speech in the U.N on Syria. Her payoff dropped from 64.5X to 56.3X. That was enough to move her from 27th place to 24th place.
Donald Trump was steady at the top. The payout remained at 2.7X and his probability improved slightly from 23.5% to 23.7%. Prior to this week he had been drifting a little bit lower each week, having peaked in the middle of January at 26.9% probability and a 2.4X payout.
Paul Ryan took a hit this week as he was out promoting the healthcare bill. His payout spiked from 26.2X to 28.5X and he dropped from 8th place to 10th place.
A couple of non politicians continue to see their odds improve:
Oprah made her debut last week in 23rd place at 58.3X. She improves this week to 21st place with a big decline in payout to 46.7X.
Mark Zuckerberg improves from 20th place to 18th place with his payout now decreasing to 41.4X. He was in 45th place at 107.3X payout just two months ago.
Donald Trump’s odds continued to be fairly steady with a similar payout (2.6X) and probability (24.5%) as two weeks ago.
Mike Pence continues to be in second and improved a little bit. His payout is at 8.7X and his probability is at 7.3%.
Cory Booker continued to be in 6th place, but his payout dropped (odds improved) once again, this time from 22.2 to 21.6. He has nearly the same payout as Hillary Clinton (21.5) who is in 5th place.
The big riser continues to be Mark Zuckerberg. He was in 45th place with a payout of 107X just 6 weeks. His payout this week dropped from 53.8X to 43.8X and he is now in 20th place.
