Donald Trump maintained his healthy lead coming in at a probability of 27.2% while the next five candidates combined were at 25.8%. Currently the average payout for betting on Trump is 2.6 to 1.
There was no movement in the top 6 candidates although Elizabeth Warren, who is in 3rd behind Mike Pence, improved her probabilty from 6.0% to 6.3%. Every $1 bet her could potentially yield $11.1.
Hillary Clinton moved from 9th place to 7th place, the highest she has been. Her payout is at 25.7 to 1.
The betting odds overall got a bit more competitive between the different oddsmakers as evidenced by Trump’s payout moving from an average of 2.5 to 1 last week to 2.6 to 1. That should have meant his probability (as computed by combining with all other payouts) should have decreased. Instead it increased from 26.6% to 27.2%.
Donald Trump continues to payout about 2.5 to 1 which gives him about a 26.5% probability relative to all other candidates. The top 5 remains unchanged with Mike Pence followed by Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and Cory Booker. They combine for 22.6% probability.
Paul Ryan had a big move up from 9th place to 6th place. A $1 bet on him currently yields $19.3 payout. He was in 12th place 4 weeks ago and has improved every week since.
Joe Biden had an eventful week. Early in the week some of his quotes lead to speculation about him running. He came back in the middle of the week saying “I have no intention of running”. The talk still pushed his odds up to 10th place after last week’s 14th place showing. Currently a $1 bet on him would payout $24.9 if he wins.
One name that was added to the odds is Newt Gingrich. He makes his debut in 34th place (out of 43) with a payout of $101 for every $1 bet.
The top 6 remained unchanged with Donald Trump having higher odds than the next five candidates combined. Donald Trump came in at 26.5% probability which was flat to last week. He was followed by Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, Cory Booker, and Tim Kaine. All five had a small decrease in odds as more names got added to the list.
Hillary Clinton was the biggest mover as she improved from 11th place to 8th place.
The big falls came from fellow Democrats Andrew Cuomo who went from 7th place to 10th place and Bernie Sanders who dropped from 9th place to 11th place.
Three additions came in at the same odds tied for 23rd place:
