Category Archives: Cuomo 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Cuomo 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Both Trump and Biden see small improvement in odds; Cuomo mania calms down while VP speculation helps Kamala’s odds; Michigan and Pennsylvania likely to be keys to the election

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement from 1.92X to 1.89X. These are high highest odds since 3/7. He is still quite a ways behind his peak of 1.59X last achieved on 2/22. There has been a small slip in favoribility ratings the last few days after it improved significantly in the early days of COVID-19 (went from an average of 42% second week of March to 46% last weekend to the current 44.5%)

Joe Biden’s odds also saw a small improvement to 2.24X from 2.25X. That is an all time high. The small jump in odds for the week when Bernie Sanders decided to get out, shows that fact was anticipated in the market. The Trump and Biden odds combined imply that Trump now has a 54.2% chance of winning, vs last week’s 54.0%.

The frenzy over Cuomo faded a bit with his odds dropping from last week’s 29.0X to this week’s 34.6X. As a result Trump’s implied odds against Biden and Cuomo combined dropped from 52.1% to 52.7%.

Out of no where, Kamala Harris’ odds came back to life as speculation rose that she might be the VP candidate. Her odds are currently at 114.5X. She was last on the board at the end of the year at 438.2X.

Here are the odds:

With Biden basically winning the nomination, we’ll change the focus now to the electoral map. We will base the predictions on the most recent polling. Polling at the state level is still very sporadic and it’s still VERY EARLY. The polling right now would suggest a disconnect between the betting odds and the math from the polls. See below. Currently projecting Biden to win 310 to 228. If all of the split states (in yellow below) go Trump’s way, it would be a 269-269 tie. If all swing states go Biden’s way it would be 352 to 186 Biden win.

Again this is early, but the big changes vs. last election right now are Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20). They seem to have a high chance of moving to Biden based on polls. That’s a 72 point swing.

For updates follow us on twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Cuomo 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds see a slight improvement with his approval near all time highs; Biden and Sanders both see small drop; A draft Cuomo 2020 movement brings his odds back to life ahead of Sanders

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Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight improvement from three weeks ago improving from 1.97X to 1.92X. They are still off their highs of 1.59X last achieved on 2/22, a week before Biden’s South Carolina win. Trump’s approval rating is basically at all time highs, so the odds near all time highs should not be a surprise.

Joe Biden saw a small drop from 2.12X to 2.25X, but that is still his second highest odds. The implied odds between the two are 54% Trump, 46% Biden.

Bernie Sanders’ odds saw a small drop from 32.0X to 33.6X. There are his lowest odds since the end of 2016.

The most interesting change in the odds came with a “Draft Cuomo 2020” movment. Andrew Cuomo was last in our odds on 2/8 at 519.2X. With COVID-19 his profile has increased and his odds have now jumped to 29.0X (inexplicably ahead of Sanders). This is the highest he has been since April 2017!

Below are the odds. We will go back to looking at the state polls again next week.

For updates follow us on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Cuomo 2020, Ryan 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Saw a Small Improvement; Paul Ryan Drops Ahead of Big Legislative Week; Booker and Cuomo Up

Donald Trump’s odds saw an uptick improving from 21.4% to 21.6%, and payout for those betting on him decreased from 3.0X to 2.9X. Both of these are exactly he was two weeks ago.

Paul Ryan’s odds dropped ahead of a big legislative week.  His payout increased from 26.6X to 27.3X.  He remains in 8th place

On the Democratic side, Cory Booker’s odds improved as his payout decreased from 22.9X to 22.4X.  This is the best he has been in 6 weeks. He remains in 6th place overall and 4th among the Democrats (behind Warren, Obama, and Clinton).

Andrew Cuomo also saw his odds improve as his payout dropped from 29.5X to 28.8X. This is right around the average of where he has been (28.5X) since the tracking started post elections.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me Twitter @2016ElectOdds

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