Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement from 1.92X to 1.89X. These are high highest odds since 3/7. He is still quite a ways behind his peak of 1.59X last achieved on 2/22. There has been a small slip in favoribility ratings the last few days after it improved significantly in the early days of COVID-19 (went from an average of 42% second week of March to 46% last weekend to the current 44.5%)

Joe Biden’s odds also saw a small improvement to 2.24X from 2.25X. That is an all time high. The small jump in odds for the week when Bernie Sanders decided to get out, shows that fact was anticipated in the market. The Trump and Biden odds combined imply that Trump now has a 54.2% chance of winning, vs last week’s 54.0%.

The frenzy over Cuomo faded a bit with his odds dropping from last week’s 29.0X to this week’s 34.6X. As a result Trump’s implied odds against Biden and Cuomo combined dropped from 52.1% to 52.7%.

Out of no where, Kamala Harris’ odds came back to life as speculation rose that she might be the VP candidate. Her odds are currently at 114.5X. She was last on the board at the end of the year at 438.2X.

Here are the odds:

With Biden basically winning the nomination, we’ll change the focus now to the electoral map. We will base the predictions on the most recent polling. Polling at the state level is still very sporadic and it’s still VERY EARLY. The polling right now would suggest a disconnect between the betting odds and the math from the polls. See below. Currently projecting Biden to win 310 to 228. If all of the split states (in yellow below) go Trump’s way, it would be a 269-269 tie. If all swing states go Biden’s way it would be 352 to 186 Biden win.

Again this is early, but the big changes vs. last election right now are Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20). They seem to have a high chance of moving to Biden based on polls. That’s a 72 point swing.

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