Category Archives: Harris 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Franken 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Steady; Kamala Harris into Top 10; Franken up, Biden down

For the 9th straight week, Donald Trump’s payout remained at 3.0X with his probability at 20.4%.  That is once again equivalent to the probability for the next four competitors combined.

Kamala Harris was the hottest name on the week as she continues to meet with Democratic power brokers and donors. Her payout dropped from 28.6X to 25.2X.  That was enough for her to jump over Paul Ryan for 10th place overall.  Her payout was over 30X just four weeks ago.

Al Franken continues to be another hot name.  His payout dropped from 63X to 59X.  He was at 71.7X five weeks ago before releasing his book and embarking on a bit of a promotional tour.  He is currently in 29th place.

One big drop was Joe Biden who’s payout moved from 23.3X to 24.2X.  This is the worst he has been in 9 weeks.  He was asked about running in 2020 by Katie Couric and dodged the question on Saturday.  He remains in 7th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 620

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Steady at the Top; Booker and Harris Improve; Sasse to Challenge Trump?

For the 7th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds continued at 3.0X.  Trump reach his high point in the weeks leading up to his inauguration when the payout was at only 2.4X.  He bottomed at 3.3X on 5/20, the week the special counsel was announced. His odds of winning are currently at 20.3%, as much as the next four competitors combined (Pence, Warren, Obama, Sanders)

Cory Booker continues to be in the top tier of competitors.  He moved up from 7th place to 6th place this week. He was asked about running in 2020 and answered “I don’t know what the future’s going to bring,” His payout moved from 22.4X to 21.4X.  That is his highest since the middle of January.

Another Democrat who improved is CA Senator Kamala Harris.  The freshman Senator has raised her profile within her own party by helping Democrats running in 2018 raise money. She moved up from 12th place to 11th place as her payout dropped from 30.9X to 27.9X.  This is the highest she has been this cycle.

One Republican who hasn’t been shy about criticizing Donald Trump is Ben Sasse.  He was asked last Sunday about whether he would challenge Trump. He didn’t answer the question, fueling speculation.  He moved up from 44th place to 40th place with the payout moving from 101X to 89.7X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 673

2020 Weekly Odds, Harris 2020, Romney 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Updated Election Odds: Little Change in Trump Odds; Bernie Sanders Up to 5th on Hot Streak; Kamala Harris and Romney Move Up

There was very little change in Donald Trump’s odds this week despite reports indicating he is personally under investigation by the special counsel.  The payout remained at 3.0X  for the fourth week in a row and his probability dropped slightly from 20.8% to 20.7%.

Bernie Sanders saw a big jump moving from a payout of 22.6X to 22.1X.  That was enough for him to jump into 5th place from 7th. Sanders has been hot having his payout decrease in each of the last 7 weeks.

Kamala Harris has seen her profile increase with the hearings and her odds have followed. Her payout has dropped from 33.3X to 31.9X.  That was enough for her to move up to 12th place from 13th place.

Mitt Romney was a name from the past that resurfaced this past week on the back of Joe Biden encouraging him to run for Senate.  His payout was at 67.0X for the last 21 weeks, but improved this week to 61.7X.  This moved him up from 30th place to 29th place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 670