Donald Trump’s Odds for re-election declined slightly after his first week in office. His payout increased from 2.4X to 2.5X, the highest in 6 weeks. Compared to the rest of the pool he has a 26% chance, still higher than the next five candidates combined.
Hillary Clinton has been moving up since the end of November when she was in 11th place. She is now in 5th place, tied with Cory Booker. Their payout is at 23.1x and their probability is at 2.8%.
The other big mover was Kamala Harris who moves up from 14th place to 12th place. Her payout moved from an average of 32.5x to 30.3x times.
11 new names were added to the odds to get to 39 in total. Mathematically, this addition caused the odds for most candidates to drop (total needs to be 100%). For example, Donald Trump continues to lead but dropped from 30.0% to 26.5%. He would have been flat without the additions.
Trump has higher odds than the next four competitors combined: Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and Cory Booker.
There were two new entries into the top 10. Andrew Cuomo, the governor of NY, moves from 9th to 7th place. Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, moves from 12th place to 10th place.
A few of the big names that got added this week were:
Kamala Harris, who just got elected to the Senate out of CA in 16th place
Kirsten Gillibrand, the Senator from NY in 17th place
Mark Cuban, the billionaire businessman in 20th place
Mitt Romney, who may be named Secretary of State, in 23rd place
