Category Archives: Harris 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Who are the Top Democratic Candidates

For the 6th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline.  This time from 3.31X to 3.35X.  Donald Trump’s odds were at 2.98X on 7/15. That is a 13% increase in payout since.  He is still more than 2 1/2 times more likely than the number two candidate, Mike Pence.

Other than Trump’s small drop, there was very little change. I’ll use this lack of 2020 news week as an opportunity to talk about who the top Democratic candidates are. (We profiled the Republicans last week)

The top 2020 Democratic candidate from day one has been Elizabeth Warren.  Her odds started at 11.1X and are currently at 10.6X.  She peaked at 9.7X at the beginning of June.

Michelle Obama has been the consistent #2 Democrat since the elections.  Her odds have declined over time however.  She started at 13.7X  and reached 12.1X a couple of weeks later.  Her odds have drifted down however, as she has been absent from the public eye.  She is currently at 17.6X.

Bernie Sanders is currently the third leading Democrat.  He started the cycle in 8th place overall after finishing second in the 2016 Democratic Primary.  He then dropped very quickly to 18th place by the end of 2016.  Since then he has worked his way up from a 33.9X payout to the current 18.2X which puts him in 5th overall.

Kamala Harris seems to have the most momentum in the Democratic party.  She started out in 16th place overall and was in 18th place at the beginning of the year.  Since then she has exploded and is currently in 4th place among the Democrats and 6th place overall.  Her payout was at 36.4X in January and is currently at 20.4X.

Some other top Democrats:

  • Joe Biden at 5th place in June (20.9X) and is now 8th place overall at 25.7X
  • Cory Booker started the cycle at 5th place (19.6X) and is now in 9th place at 26.5X
  • Hillary Clinton was in 5th place from the end of January to the beginning of May. peaking at 20.6X in the middle of March.  She is currently in 11th place at 28.0X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 627

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Lead Continues Slow Decline; Clinton Back in Top 10; Kasich up on NH Poll; Booker Down

Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline for the 4th straight week. His payout increased from 3.15X to 3.20X.  This is the lowest odds this election cycle.  It was at 2.98X four weeks ago.  The probability of him winning (19.3%) is still nearly as high as the next four challengers combined (20.1%)

Cory Booker saw a big drop  with the payout increasing from 22.2X to 24.6X.  That was enough to drop him to 8th place.  This is the lowest he has been at.  Kamala Harris seems to have stolen Booker’s thunder.  Booker started the election cycle in 5th place with a payout of only 19.6X.

Hillary Clinton saw improvement in her odds this week as they moved from 26.6X to 25.4X. That was enough to move her from 11th place to 9th place.  She has been as high as 5th place from late January to early May.

The biggest move up was John Kasich.  His odds moved from 59.6X to 49.7X. Those are his best odds of the cycle.  This moved him from 28th place to 26th place.  The improvement maybe the result of a poll of GOP NH primary voters came out showing they would prefer Kasich over Trump. 

Here is a full list of odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 616

2020 Weekly Odds, Harris 2020, Johnson 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds See a Slight Decline; Kamala Harris Jumps to 6th Place as She Attracts Donors; Dwayne Johnson up into Top 10; Sanders Improves but Still in 5th Place

Donald Trump’s odds took a slight hit this week as his Chief of Staff resigned/was fired.  His payout moved up from 3.0X to 3.1X.  That is the lowest odds in 10 weeks.  His probability drops from 20.4% to 19.7%.  His odds remain about 3 times his next competitor, his VP Mike Pence, who is at 8.6X.

The hottest name remains Kamala Harris.  She continued to meet with influential Democratic fundraisers including many formerly associated with Clinton. Her payout dropped from 25.2X to 19.6X.  That was enough to move her from 10th place to 6th place.  A mere 5 weeks ago she was in 12th place at a payout of 30.9X.

Another hot name has been Dwayne Johnson.  In a week with no 2020 news about him, he jumped from 13th place to 8th place with his payout dropping from 31X to 24X.   It’s common to see jumps like this when there are very few sites with odds on someone.  That is not the case here.  This is based on 9 different odds makers.

Reports of Bernie Sanders likely running helped his odds as his payout declined from 19.9X to 18.6X.  He remains in 5th place.  This matches the best odds he has had, which previously came at the beginning of July.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 551