Donald Trump’s odds improved for the second week in a row as his payout dropped from 3.31X to 3.27X, which is where it was four weeks ago. He has nearly identical probability of winning as the next four competitors combined.
The hottest name continues to be Kamala Harris. She remains in 4th place but her payout dropped once again, this time from 14.6X to 14.3X. She has widened her lead over Sanders and is catching up with Warren who is at 11.7X. Both were profiled as part of the “Big Four” Women Democrats for 2020.
The two highest non politicians remain Michelle Obama and Mark Zuckerberg. Obama is currently in 6th place but her payout has been increasing. It is currently at 22.3X up from 21.6X the previous week. She was at 18.2X ten weeks ago.
Zuckerberg on the other hand improved this week from a payout of 26.3X to 25.7X. This is the lowest payout in 4 weeks and moves him from 8th place to 7th place.
Donald Trump’s odds rebounded this week after two weeks of declines. His payout dropped from 3.34X to 3.31X. His odds have been in a range of 3.20X and 3.46X for the last 15 weeks.
Kamala Harris continued to be the hottest name on the Democratic side. Her odds once again improved as her payout decreased from 15.0X to 14.6X. She remains in 4th place . Harris comes up as the top alternative as the new face for the Democrats as this essay illustrates.
Joe Biden has seen his odds improve the last two weeks. This week they moved from 26.0X to 24.7X, but he remained in 7th place. A poll released this week showed Biden would be ahead of Trump 46 to 35. The interesting thing is a “generic Democrat” would be ahead by a larger margin 48 to 34.
Al Franken’s odds tanked with the sexual misconduct allegations. The payout increased from 45.9X to 51.3X which dropped him from 18th place to 22nd place. He had been a hot name prior to this moving from 30th place to 18th place in 5 weeks.
After seven weeks of drifting up, Donald Trump’s odd saw a small decline as the payout increased from 3.25X to 3.27X. This drop coincided with the first indictments in the Russia investigation. It will be interesting to see if it bumps back up as the headlines change to the President’s Asia trip over the next two weeks.
Kamala Harris keeps reaching new highs. Her payout dropped from 16.4X to 15.4X and she remains in 4th place. She made news this week by becoming the first Senate Democrat vowing to oppose any government funding bill unless Congress takes action on the DREAMers. Many see this as a 2020 ploy.
Michelle Obama saw a big decline moving from 20.4X to 21.3X. That is a new low for her, but she remains in 6th place. She was at 12.1X and in 4th place at the end of 2016. This drop comes despite her leading a recent survey of Democratic primary voters.
