Category Archives: Harris 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Garcetti 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue to Improve; Kamala Harris Doesn’t Rule Out Running, Jumps to Second Place; Bloomberg Active In Helping Dems Capture House; Garcetti Continues to Increase Profile

Donald Trump’s odds continued to improve inching up from 2.46X to 2.45X, his highest odds since the inauguration in Jan 2017.  He has either been flat or improved the last 14 weeks.  He was at 2.79X at the start of the streak.

Kamala Harris improved from 11.8X to 11.4X.  This is a new high for her and enough of an improvement to have her jump back into second place ahead of Bernie Sanders.  Harris would not rule out running in 2020 this week when pressed for an answer during an interview.

Michael Bloomberg improved from 48.4X to 45.8X. This was enough to move him from 14th place to 13th place.  He has been on a mini hot streak moving from 21st place at the beginning of the month. Bloomberg is making sizable contributions to help the Democrats win the House in 2018.  Some think this may also be a way to set him up for a possible 2020 run.

Erica Garcetti improved from 68.1X to 67.3X and moving up from 32nd place to 31st. He was in 36th place four weeks ago.  Garcetti continued to increase his profile this week by having an in depth interview with Vox

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Reflection on First 18 Months of 2020 Election Cycle: How Have the Odds Shifted at the Top?

We are 18 months post the 2016 Election.  How have the odds at the top changed?

At the very top, Donald Trump has maintained a giant lead throughout.  He was at 2.6 to 1 in December, started dropping immediately and bottomed at 3.5 to 1 in September 2017, but has rebounded to his current 2.7X.  Although he has the most likely odds, they are still well under 50%.

Mike Pence was the number 2 candidate in December, most of those odds revolved around speculation of either Trump not finishing his term or not running in 2020.  As time has gone on, those odds have drifted down.  His odds have dropped from 9.5X in December to the current 15.5X. As a result he has dropped from 2nd place to the current 6th place.

Elizabeth Warren started as the Democratic favorite.  Much like 2016, Warren had many on the left believing it was her time while she gave no indication of running.  She started out at 11.1 to 1 odds.  She then stated she would run for the Senate and finish out her term if she wins. That would indicate no 2020 run.  Her odds dropped as a result to 14.9 to 1, but she still remains near the top in 5th place overall.

Michelle Obama began in 4th place at 13.7 to 1.  The former First Lady had a high favorability rating and name recognition.  She has consistently stated she is not running and as a result has dropped to 10th place overall and odds at 31.3X.

Cory Booker began in 5th place at 19.6 to 1. While most speculate that he will still run, he has been overshadowed as a top tier Democratic candidate by Sanders, Harris, and Biden.

Bernie Sanders was in 14th place in December at 32.1X.  Most believed he would not run in 2020, perhaps due to age or for talk of the Democrats looking for new blood at the top.  Instead, Sanders has managed to stay relevant and moved up to be the top contender as of right now for the Democratic nomination.  He has the experience and infrastructure of a campaign and has seen his odds improve to 11.4X, nearly tripling over the last three months.

Kamala Harris is the biggest mover of all.  The freshman Senator from CA did not have a national profile back in Dec 16.  She was in 15th place with odds of 34.8 to 1.  Over the past 18 months she has elevated her national profile and even reached second place overall back in March.  She is currently in 3rd place at 12.1X.

Joe Biden is the other big riser over the last 18 months.  Much like Sanders, Biden was discounted due to age and the Democrats wanting a fresh face for 2020. He was in 10th place in Dec 2017 at 26.8 to 1. Despite not holding an office, Biden has managed to keep his name in the news.  He has taken on President Trump at every opportunity and refuses to rule out running in 2020. He is currently in 4th place overall at 14.6X.

Here’s the top 5 then and now as well as the overall current leaderboard:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Hold Steady at One Year Highs; Kamala Harris’ Candidacy Needs Work Back in CA; Warren Continues to Drift Down; Gillibrand Continues to Increase Profile

For the 4th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds remained flat at 2.77X.  These have been his high for over a year.   This is basically the same odds as the next 9 Republican candidates combined, meaning about a 50/50 shot of being the Republican nominee.

Kamala Harris improved slightly from 12.7X to 12.5X and remains in third overall.  Harris seems to be better known as a national name than a local CA name.  That may be problematic come primary time as CA has moved up its primary.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds continued to drift down after announcing she intends on finishing her second term if reelected in the fall.  She was at 13.0X at that time and dropped to 13.8X. This was followed by 14.3X last week, and the current at 14.7X. She remains in 4th place overall.

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to increase her profile as evidenced by this GQ article.  Her odds improved from 24.7X to 23.8X.  That puts her in 7th place overall, an area she’s occupied for six of the last eight weeks when she capitalized on the #MeToo movement.

Here are the full odds:

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