We are 18 months post the 2016 Election.  How have the odds at the top changed?

At the very top, Donald Trump has maintained a giant lead throughout.  He was at 2.6 to 1 in December, started dropping immediately and bottomed at 3.5 to 1 in September 2017, but has rebounded to his current 2.7X.  Although he has the most likely odds, they are still well under 50%.

Mike Pence was the number 2 candidate in December, most of those odds revolved around speculation of either Trump not finishing his term or not running in 2020.  As time has gone on, those odds have drifted down.  His odds have dropped from 9.5X in December to the current 15.5X. As a result he has dropped from 2nd place to the current 6th place.

Elizabeth Warren started as the Democratic favorite.  Much like 2016, Warren had many on the left believing it was her time while she gave no indication of running.  She started out at 11.1 to 1 odds.  She then stated she would run for the Senate and finish out her term if she wins. That would indicate no 2020 run.  Her odds dropped as a result to 14.9 to 1, but she still remains near the top in 5th place overall.

Michelle Obama began in 4th place at 13.7 to 1.  The former First Lady had a high favorability rating and name recognition.  She has consistently stated she is not running and as a result has dropped to 10th place overall and odds at 31.3X.

Cory Booker began in 5th place at 19.6 to 1. While most speculate that he will still run, he has been overshadowed as a top tier Democratic candidate by Sanders, Harris, and Biden.

Bernie Sanders was in 14th place in December at 32.1X.  Most believed he would not run in 2020, perhaps due to age or for talk of the Democrats looking for new blood at the top.  Instead, Sanders has managed to stay relevant and moved up to be the top contender as of right now for the Democratic nomination.  He has the experience and infrastructure of a campaign and has seen his odds improve to 11.4X, nearly tripling over the last three months.

Kamala Harris is the biggest mover of all.  The freshman Senator from CA did not have a national profile back in Dec 16.  She was in 15th place with odds of 34.8 to 1.  Over the past 18 months she has elevated her national profile and even reached second place overall back in March.  She is currently in 3rd place at 12.1X.

Joe Biden is the other big riser over the last 18 months.  Much like Sanders, Biden was discounted due to age and the Democrats wanting a fresh face for 2020. He was in 10th place in Dec 2017 at 26.8 to 1. Despite not holding an office, Biden has managed to keep his name in the news.  He has taken on President Trump at every opportunity and refuses to rule out running in 2020. He is currently in 4th place overall at 14.6X.

Here’s the top 5 then and now as well as the overall current leaderboard:

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