Category Archives: Castro 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Democratic debate odds movement: Warren reaches a new high, Donors losing confidence in Kamala Harris, and Biden stable; Trump’s odds see another small decline; Clinton’s odds jump 30% to highest in 6 months

Donald Trump’s odds continued their recent trend of small declines as they dropped from 2.01X to 2.03X. They have now been flat or lower to the prior week for six straight weeks and are at their lowest point since the end of June. Trump’s odds against the top 5 opponents remained flat at 48%, as the top 5 combined Democrats also saw a slight drop from 1.86X to 1.87X.

The biggest winner of the debate this week and all of the debates in general seems to be Elizabeth Warren who seems to be the one shaping the direction the primary and debates move towards. Her odds improved this week from 5.5X to 5.0X, not only an all time high for her, but also an all time high for any Democratic candidate. (Previous was Biden at 5.19X in June). She has improved after every single debate and has moved up from 12.1X prior to the start of the debates, the biggest improvement of any candidate.

The biggest loser this debate was Kamala Harris. She saw the biggest improvement after the first debate (improving from 14X to 8X), but saw a big drop after the second debate (6.3X to 8.0X) and this week after the third debate (14X to 19X). Her debate performance is beginning to hurt her with big donors.

The best way to describe Biden’s odds post this debate is “stable”. He dropped slightly from 6.7X to 6.8X. Biden had a horrible first debate, rebounded in the second, and seems to have solidified himself as the center-left candidate. This third debate had its share of bad headlines for Biden mostly related to age with a record player comment, a jab by Castro about his memory, and his teeth staying in his mouth.

The one unexpected movement in odds was for Hillary Clinton. Her odds jumped from 90.0X to 69.5X. These are her highest odds since March 2019 when she announced she would not be running. The interesting thing is she seems to be getting active in 2020 by advising Democratic odds front runner Elizabeth Warren.

Here are the odds of the candidate with better than 200 to 1 odds as well as a breakdown of how odds have shifted as a result of the debates.

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump reaches new high; Harris leapfrogs Biden; Warren widens gap over Sanders; Julian Castro continues to have momentum

Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week as they are now at an even 2.00X surpassing the previous high of 2.02X set 4 weeks ago. We started tracking his odds compared to the next 5 Democrats combined. His implied likelihood increased from 48.1% last week to 49.0% as the top 5 Democrats decreased from a combined 1.88X to 1.92X.

Kamala Harris continued with her momentum coming out of the first debate as she improved from 7.53X to 6.33X. That combined with Biden’s continued struggles allowed her to jump over the VP to be the leading Democratic candidate as far the odds are concerned. The odds are just reflecting the post debate polls.

The other pair that swapped positions last week continued their recent trend. Warren continued to improve moving from from 9.7X to 9.4X, putting her in striking distance of Biden. These are all new highs for Warren. Bernie Sanders continues to lose momentum dropping from 12.8X to 14.0X. These are his lowest odds since the middle of February.

The under the radar candidate of the moment seems to be Julian Castro. He had one of the top debate performances and polls show it. His odds improved this week from 115.1X to 110.6X allowing him to jump to 14th place. He has improved the last 5 weeks. At that time he was in 30th place at 147.7X.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Castro 2020, de Blasio 2020, Delaney 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Inslee 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

First debate causes shakeup as Harris comes away the big winner at Biden’s expense. Debate and weeks of momentum finally have Warren move ahead of Sanders. Trump continues to cruise near all time highs

The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.

Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.

The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.

The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.

In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.

Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:

Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :

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