Donald Trump’s odds continued their recent trend of small declines as they dropped from 2.01X to 2.03X. They have now been flat or lower to the prior week for six straight weeks and are at their lowest point since the end of June. Trump’s odds against the top 5 opponents remained flat at 48%, as the top 5 combined Democrats also saw a slight drop from 1.86X to 1.87X.
The biggest winner of the debate this week and all of the debates in general seems to be Elizabeth Warren who seems to be the one shaping the direction the primary and debates move towards. Her odds improved this week from 5.5X to 5.0X, not only an all time high for her, but also an all time high for any Democratic candidate. (Previous was Biden at 5.19X in June). She has improved after every single debate and has moved up from 12.1X prior to the start of the debates, the biggest improvement of any candidate.
The biggest loser this debate was Kamala Harris. She saw the biggest improvement after the first debate (improving from 14X to 8X), but saw a big drop after the second debate (6.3X to 8.0X) and this week after the third debate (14X to 19X). Her debate performance is beginning to hurt her with big donors.
The best way to describe Biden’s odds post this debate is “stable”. He dropped slightly from 6.7X to 6.8X. Biden had a horrible first debate, rebounded in the second, and seems to have solidified himself as the center-left candidate. This third debate had its share of bad headlines for Biden mostly related to age with a record player comment, a jab by Castro about his memory, and his teeth staying in his mouth.
The one unexpected movement in odds was for Hillary Clinton. Her odds jumped from 90.0X to 69.5X. These are her highest odds since March 2019 when she announced she would not be running. The interesting thing is she seems to be getting active in 2020 by advising Democratic odds front runner Elizabeth Warren.
Here are the odds of the candidate with better than 200 to 1 odds as well as a breakdown of how odds have shifted as a result of the debates.
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