Category Archives: Biden 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Romney 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds flat to last week; Winners from 4th debate include Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren; Sanders “resets” campaign and gets AOC endorsement; Romney and Bloomberg with big improvements

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.24X, about 15% lower than the 1.90X high set beginning of August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats dropped to 43.9% from 44.8%. This as a result of the top 5 Democrats improving their combined odds from 1.81X to 1.75X.

The Democrats had their 4th debate and based on the odds here’s the big winners:

Here are how to odds moved this week for all who were involved in the debate:

Hillary Clinton’s streak of 9 straight weeks of improvements finally came to an end as she dropped from 25.2X to 31.5X. That is still the highest of any non candidate.

Mitt Romney saw another jump in odds as he stepped up his talk against Trump’s Syria policy. The odds moved from 98.0X to 80.6X, his highest since January.

Michael Bloomberg’s odds nearly doubled from 197.4X to 107.7X as reports came out he is looking into possibly entering if Biden falters. These are his highest odds since May.

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see small decline; Warren reaches another new high; Clinton odds continue to rise as both Trump and Clinton comment on a possible rematch; Rep. alternatives now higher than former Dem. frontrunners

Donald’s Trump’s odds saw another small decline, this week from 2.20X to 2.24X. This is the third straight decline and the lowest odds since mid April. His odds against the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 44.7% as their odds also dropped, from 1.78X to 1.81X.

Movements this week were a continuation of last week:

  • Elizabeth Warren remained the hottest name reaching yet another new high for anyone not named Trump. She improved from 3.45X to 3.32X.
  • For a second straight week Bernie Sanders odds tanked, with continued concerns over the heart attack. He drops from 17.9X last week to 22.1X this week. These are his lowest odds in 2 1/2 years. He was at 14.3X, but already declining, two weeks ago prior to the heart attack.
  • Clinton’s odds continued to rise jumping from 39.5X to 25.2X, their highest since August 2017. This is the 9th straight week of increases for Clinton and 5th straight week of large improvements. She was at 90.0X at the start of September. Both Trump and Clinton made comments this week about a possible rematch.
  • Republican alternatives to Trump also saw jumps with Pence improving from 48.9X to 37.3X, Haley from 53.0X to 41.9X, and Romney from 125.9X to 98.0X.

The jumps from Clinton and Trump Republican alternatives are causing some interesting distortions in relative odds. For example:

  • Clinton now has higher odds (25.2X) than Pete Buttigieg (26.4X)
  • Mike Pence has higher odds (37.3X) than Kamala Harris (38.1X)
  • Mitt Romney has higher odds (98.0X) than Beto O’Rourke (109.2X)

Here are the odds of all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Ryan 2020, Sanders 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see moderate drop on start of impeachment inquiry, giving life to odds of Republicans who are not running; Warren reaches another new high, putting space between her and other Dems; Clinton’s odds continue to improve on no news

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 2.02X to 2.17X this week with the opening of the impeachment inquiry driven by the Ukraine whistle blower. That is about a 7% drop, but putting things in perspective, that is where he was in May of 2019. His odds against the top 5 Democrats declined from last week’s 48.5% to this week’s 44.7% as their combined odds improved from 1.90X to 1.75X.

Trump’s odds resulted in life for some Republican alternatives:

  • Mike Pence improved from 86.5X to 60.9X and he rose from 12th to 9th
  • Nikki Haley improved from 123X to 74X and she moved from 14th to 10th
  • Mitt Romney improved from 146X to 138X and he moved from 17th to 15th
  • John Kasich improved from 162X to 157X and he moved from 20th to 19th
  • Paul Ryan improved from 217X to 203X and he moved from 48th to 38th
  • Ben Sasse improved from 224X to 210X and he moved from 49th to 42nd

On the Democratic side, Elizabeth Warren continued to put distance between her and the field. Her odds reached another new Democratic high rising from 4.89X to 3.50X. 4 out of her 5 closest competitors saw significant decreases:

  • Biden a 10% drop from 6.88X to 7.66X a 9 week low
  • Sanders a 20% drop from 11.5X to 14.3X a 9 week low
  • Kamala Harris 13% drop from 23.1X to 26.4X, a 2+ year low
  • Pete Buttigieg 7% drop from 29.1X to 31.1X, a 6 months low

For the third straight week, Hillary Clinton’s odds have improved, this week from 53.6X to 49.9X. That ranks her as the 7th place Democrat. Oddly centrists and those to the far right are in agreement in that they would both love to see her run.

Here are the odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the leaders:

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