Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 2.02X to 2.17X this week with the opening of the impeachment inquiry driven by the Ukraine whistle blower. That is about a 7% drop, but putting things in perspective, that is where he was in May of 2019. His odds against the top 5 Democrats declined from last week’s 48.5% to this week’s 44.7% as their combined odds improved from 1.90X to 1.75X.

Trump’s odds resulted in life for some Republican alternatives:

• Mike Pence improved from 86.5X to 60.9X and he rose from 12th to 9th
• Nikki Haley improved from 123X to 74X and she moved from 14th to 10th
• Mitt Romney improved from 146X to 138X and he moved from 17th to 15th
• John Kasich improved from 162X to 157X and he moved from 20th to 19th
• Paul Ryan improved from 217X to 203X and he moved from 48th to 38th
• Ben Sasse improved from 224X to 210X and he moved from 49th to 42nd

On the Democratic side, Elizabeth Warren continued to put distance between her and the field. Her odds reached another new Democratic high rising from 4.89X to 3.50X. 4 out of her 5 closest competitors saw significant decreases:

• Biden a 10% drop from 6.88X to 7.66X a 9 week low
• Sanders a 20% drop from 11.5X to 14.3X a 9 week low
• Kamala Harris 13% drop from 23.1X to 26.4X, a 2+ year low
• Pete Buttigieg 7% drop from 29.1X to 31.1X, a 6 months low

For the third straight week, Hillary Clinton’s odds have improved, this week from 53.6X to 49.9X. That ranks her as the 7th place Democrat. Oddly centrists and those to the far right are in agreement in that they would both love to see her run.

Here are the odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the leaders:

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