Category Archives: Biden 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Democratic debate odds movement: Warren reaches a new high, Donors losing confidence in Kamala Harris, and Biden stable; Trump’s odds see another small decline; Clinton’s odds jump 30% to highest in 6 months

Donald Trump’s odds continued their recent trend of small declines as they dropped from 2.01X to 2.03X. They have now been flat or lower to the prior week for six straight weeks and are at their lowest point since the end of June. Trump’s odds against the top 5 opponents remained flat at 48%, as the top 5 combined Democrats also saw a slight drop from 1.86X to 1.87X.

The biggest winner of the debate this week and all of the debates in general seems to be Elizabeth Warren who seems to be the one shaping the direction the primary and debates move towards. Her odds improved this week from 5.5X to 5.0X, not only an all time high for her, but also an all time high for any Democratic candidate. (Previous was Biden at 5.19X in June). She has improved after every single debate and has moved up from 12.1X prior to the start of the debates, the biggest improvement of any candidate.

The biggest loser this debate was Kamala Harris. She saw the biggest improvement after the first debate (improving from 14X to 8X), but saw a big drop after the second debate (6.3X to 8.0X) and this week after the third debate (14X to 19X). Her debate performance is beginning to hurt her with big donors.

The best way to describe Biden’s odds post this debate is “stable”. He dropped slightly from 6.7X to 6.8X. Biden had a horrible first debate, rebounded in the second, and seems to have solidified himself as the center-left candidate. This third debate had its share of bad headlines for Biden mostly related to age with a record player comment, a jab by Castro about his memory, and his teeth staying in his mouth.

The one unexpected movement in odds was for Hillary Clinton. Her odds jumped from 90.0X to 69.5X. These are her highest odds since March 2019 when she announced she would not be running. The interesting thing is she seems to be getting active in 2020 by advising Democratic odds front runner Elizabeth Warren.

Here are the odds of the candidate with better than 200 to 1 odds as well as a breakdown of how odds have shifted as a result of the debates.

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds remained flat; Harris finally reverses downward trend; Yang at all time high, drawing attention from both Sanders and Trump supporters

Trump’s odds remained flat to last week’s 2.01X, close to his all time high set at the start of August of 1.90X, but also tied for his lowest odds in 10 weeks. Trump has seen his average net favorability rating drop from an average of -10 to the current -12 over those 70 days. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped from 48.9% to 48.0%, as their combined odds increased from 1.92X to 1.86X.

Although Elizabeth Warren (5.65X last week to 5.52X) and Bernie Sanders (11.1X last week vs. 10.9X this week) kept their momentum, the big movers for the Democrats this week were Kamala Harris and Andrew Yang.

Harris came into this week dropping in seven straight weeks over which her odds changed from 5.57X to last week’s 15.2X. She reversed that trend this week by improving to 14.3X. According to a Trump aide, she’s the candidate they most fear as she is the least flawed. Who knows if that’s truly what the Trump campaign believes or if that’s an attempt to help her bump Warren/Biden/Sanders down from the top.

Andrew Yang improved from 26.2X to 21.8X putting more space between his odds and those of Buttigieg, whom he passed last week. This is a new all time high for Yang. Oddly enough, he’s now drawing support from supporters of both Sanders and Trump.

Here are the the candidates that have a better than 200 to 1 shot.

Here’s a 6 month trend of the top 5 candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Romney 2020, Sasse 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds drop for a 3rd week in a row, still near highs; Warren, Biden, Steyer improve; Harris and Buttigieg continue to drop; Odds of Republican alternatives showing signs of life

Donald Trump’s Odds saw a drop for a third straight week moving from 1.93X to 1.98X. the 1.98X is his lowest in 5 weeks but is still close to his all time high of 1.90X achieved the beginning of August. His odds compared to the top 5 Democrats also decreased from 49.9% to 50.7%. This was purely a result of his drop. The top 5 Democrats saw a small decrease from 1.92X to 1.93X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the hottest name improving once again. Warren’s odds are now at 5.90X up from 6.14X. This is another new high for her. The Democratic high is held by Joe Biden at 5.19X in June. She has improved or been flat in 18 straight weeks.

Joe Biden saw a small improvement from 6.89X to 6.63X. This basically puts him back to where he was a few weeks ago after the 2nd debate.

Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg continued to drop. Harris declined from 11.8X to 13.4X. She has now declined for 6 straight weeks and is at her lowest point in 9 weeks.

Buttigieg declined from 21.7X to 24.4X. He has now declined in nine straight weeks and has reached his lowest point since later March.

Tom Steyer continued to improve as he still has a chance to qualify for the 3rd debate using his own money to buy ads which have translated into name recognition and movement in the polls. He improved from 137X to 121X. This is the highest he has been since April. He is now in 15th place overall jumping from 44th place two weeks ago.

Although there’s been talk of additional primary challenges to Trump like Joe Walsh (who’s not even in the odds yet), the interesting movement is with Republicans not likely to challenge Trump. This could be a hedge on Trump not finishing his term. For example, Mitt Romney was up from 148X to 137X, a 9 week high. John Kasich was up from 175X to 164X, a 5 week high. Ben Sasse was up from 229X to 191X. a 17 week high. Ted Cruz was up from 260X to 210X, a 17 week high.

Below is a list of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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