The trend has continued of Donald Trump having a large but shrinking lead: The payout is now up to 3X from 2.9X. It was at 2.4X pre-inauguration. The probability dropped from 21.6% to 21.4%. It was at 26.9% pre-inauguration.
Bernie Sanders continues to stay relevant, with his payout declining from 23X to 22.9X. That was enough for him to jump into a tie for 6th place with Cory Booker.
Nikki Haley continues to increase her profile through her UN position. Her payout has dropped from 56.3X to 53.6X. That puts her in 24th place.
Joseph P Kennedy joined the list at 23rd place with a payout of 55X. This week he moves up to 21st place with a payout of 45.8X.
Donald Trump continued to have a large lead (nearly 4 times the probability of Elizabeth Warren, the closest Democrat to him). That lead continues to shrink however. His probability is down from 22.2% last week to 21.6% this week. It peaked just before the inauguration at 26.9%. $1 on Trump currently pays out an average of $2.9.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton seemed to be raising her profile a bit this past week with some public statements. That did not help her odds. Her payout increased from 21.4X to 21.9X. Her odds were highest 4 weeks ago when the payout was at 20.6X. She remains in 5th place.
Cory Booker rebounded from his drop last week. He jumps over Bernie Sanders for 6th place as his payout decreased from 23.1X to 22.9X.
The biggest mover of the week was Nikki Haley whose profile increased with her speech in the U.N on Syria. Her payoff dropped from 64.5X to 56.3X. That was enough to move her from 27th place to 24th place.
Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop with his payout increasing from 2.8X to 2.9X. The payout has been slowly climbing since bottoming at 2.4X the week of the inauguration. The probability dropped to 22.2% from 22.7% last week and 26.5% at the inauguration. He still has a large lead eclipsing the next four candidates combined.
Michelle Obama remained in 4th place overall but her odds decreased from from 4.5% to 4.3% as the payout increased from 14.2X to 14.8X.
Despite the fact that he will be 79 at the next election, Bernie Sanders’ odds keep increasing. He has been keeping up his profile via interviews and that seems to have helped. He jumps Cory Booker for 6th place, the highest he has been. His payout decreased from 24.5X to 22.5X.
John Kasich is playing the moderate alternative to Trump and he saw his odds improve as he moved from 31st place to 28th place. The payout decreased from 67.4X to 65.5X.
