Updated Election Odds: Trump Continues with Large but Shrinking Lead; Sanders Passes Booker; Obama Declines, Kasich Improves

Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop with his payout increasing from 2.8X to 2.9X.  The payout has been slowly climbing since bottoming at 2.4X the week of the inauguration.  The probability dropped to 22.2% from 22.7% last week and 26.5% at the inauguration. He still has a large lead eclipsing the next four candidates combined.

Michelle Obama remained in 4th place overall but her odds decreased from from 4.5% to 4.3% as the payout increased from 14.2X to 14.8X.

Despite the fact that he will be 79 at the next election, Bernie Sanders’ odds keep increasing.  He has been keeping up his profile via interviews  and that seems to have helped.  He jumps Cory Booker for 6th place, the highest he has been.  His payout decreased from 24.5X to 22.5X.

John Kasich is playing the moderate alternative to Trump and he saw his odds improve as he moved from 31st place to 28th place. The payout decreased from 67.4X to 65.5X.

Here are the full odds:

 

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