All posts by Aztocas

2020 Weekly Odds, Duckworth 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Oprah 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds See Small Decline, Lowest in 8 weeks; Oprah Speech and Media Frenzy Afterwards Shoots her Odds Up to 2nd Place; Gillibrand Continues Rise; Duckworth Moves up Slowly

Donald Trump saw a drop in odds as his payout increased from 3.28X to 3.31X.  This is the lowest he has been in 8 weeks but he remains nearly 3 times as likely as his next opponent.  It’s been 8 days since the release of the book Fire and Fury.  The President’s odds, as with most others, were also probably impacted by the rise in the odds for Oprah.

Oprah Winfrey delivered a speech on Sunday at the Golden Globes, and that sent political world and the betting world into a frenzy.  Prior to the speech, payout for betting on Oprah was at 33.3X. In September they were above 50X.  Today, as a result of that speech and speculation after, she has vaulted to 2nd place (from 13th place) ahead of Mike Pence at 10.1X.  Different sites range anywhere between 9X and 12X.  The odds are a reflection of people betting on her.  It will be interesting  to watch if the odds fall back as the if/when the media buzz wears off.

Kirsten Gillibrand continued her recent run improving from 27.6X to 23.2X.  That allowed her to move up from 10th place to 8th place.  Just six weeks ago she was in 18th place with a payout of 45.8X.

One under the radar name that has been improving consistently is Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth. She is listed as the 9th most likely female Democrat to run in this article.  She has had a small improvement in each of the last 5 weeks moving from 53rd place and 101X to the current 43rd place and 81X.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 768

2020 Weekly Odds, Gillibrand 2020, Newsom 2020, Romney 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Flat to Last Week even with the Release of Fire and Fury; Gillibrand Jumps into Top 10; Newsom Continues Hot Streak; Romney Odds Show Signs of Life on Senate Speculation

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week even as the controversial behind the scenes book Fire and Fury was released on Friday.  The payout continued to be at 3.28X and has now been between 3.25X and 3.30X for the last 11 weeks.

The hot name continued to be Kirsten Gillibrand. Speculation that the Senator is running has been increasing as she takes actions that would earn her favor with the left wing of the party. Her payout is now at 27.6X down from last week’s 33.8X.  That was enough to move her from 12th place to 10th place.  Her payout was at 45.8X and she was in 19th place 5 weeks ago before calling for the resignations of Senator Franken and President Trump due to sexual allegations.

Another name that has been improving the last few weeks is Gavin Newsom.  The current Lt. Governor of CA has a payout of 32.2X and moved up from 13th place to 12th place.  Five weeks ago he was at 50.8X and in 22nd place.  This week he took shots at Trump’s decision to open up offshore oil exploration.

Mitt Romney saw an improvement in odds this week as his payout decreased from 65.5X to 62.2X and he moved up from 36th place to 32nd place.  Orrin Hatch decided not to run for re-election in Utah opening up an opportunity for Romney to get back into politics in the Senate in 2018 and possibly challenge Trump in a primary in 2020.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 760

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Cuban 2020, Garcetti 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds See a Small Improvement; Poll Showing Cuban Ahead of Trump in Texas Improves his Odds; Cruz’s Odds Improve on Speculation he May Primary Trump; LA Mayor Garcetti Admits Considering a Run

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement with the payout moving from 3.30X to 3.28X, exactly where it was two weeks ago.  It has been between 3.25X and 3.30X for the last 10 weeks and it’s little under the combined odds of his next four competitors combined.

Mark Cuban saw a slight bump from a poll released showing he leads Trump head to head in Texas for President. The payout for putting money on Cuban improved from 55.9X to 54.3X.  That is the best he has been since July.  He is in 29th place overall.

Close to Cuban’s odds are the odds for Ted Cruz.  His payout improved from 62.0X to 60.5X which is good enough for 32nd place.  He’s thought to be one of the most likely Republicans to primary Trump should Trump be hurt by the midterms or should the Russia probe result in anything substantial.

There is not a lack of Democratic candidates that seem to be popping up in California.  The flavor of the week this week is Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti.  His payout improved from 70.5X to 63.0X.  That was enough to move him from 38th place to 34th place.  That is the highest he has been and came on the heels of Garcetti admitting he is considering a run to Univision.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 807