Big jump in Trump’s odds after the Republican Convention moving from 2.22X to 1.99X. His odds have now increased for five straight weeks and are at a 13 weeks high.

Joe Biden’s odds dropped from 1.71X to 1.83X. That’s his fourth drop in a row and his lowest odds in 12 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 52.1%, lowest in 13 weeks. Trump has now gained on Biden for 4 straight weeks.

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

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This week the FiveThirtyEight showed a small improvement for Trump while he Economist for Biden. They offset each other and the overall forecast remained atBiden 326-212.

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina and make up for being behind in Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is it appears Wisconsin might be in play a little more for Trump. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls of each of 6 of these 7 states.

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Even after a convention that many thought was a success, Biden’s odds dropped again from 1.64X to 1.71X, his lowest in 9 weeks.

Trump’s odds improved from 2.33X to 2.22X, his highest in 10 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 56.6%, lowest in 9 weeks. Trump has now gained on Biden for 3 straight weeks.

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

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Of the 7 models tracked, only the Economist and FiveThirtyEight are updated regularly. Those two models continued to converge with the Economist increasing Trump’s projection from 188 to 195 while FiveThirtyEight moved it from 212 to 213. The overall forecast changed from Biden 327-211 to 326-212.

Keeping it simple: (same as last week) For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina and make up for being behind in Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls of each of those 6 states.

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Biden’s odds dropped again from 1.61X to 1.64X, his lowest in 5 weeks.

Trump’s odds improved from 2.43X to 2.33X, his highest in 8 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 58.7%, lowest in 8 weeks

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

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The electoral projections showed a small move to Trump’s side with only two models moving: The economist which is the lowest for Trump, increased his forecast from 181 to 188, and FiveThirtyEight which is the closest to the overall average, increased Biden from 322 to 325. The overall forecast changed from Biden 328-210 to 327-211.

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina and make up for being behind in Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls of each of those 6 states.

For updates follow us on Twitter

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