Even after a convention that many thought was a success, Biden’s odds dropped again from 1.64X to 1.71X, his lowest in 9 weeks.

Trump’s odds improved from 2.33X to 2.22X, his highest in 10 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 56.6%, lowest in 9 weeks. Trump has now gained on Biden for 3 straight weeks.

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

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Of the 7 models tracked, only the Economist and FiveThirtyEight are updated regularly. Those two models continued to converge with the Economist increasing Trump’s projection from 188 to 195 while FiveThirtyEight moved it from 212 to 213. The overall forecast changed from Biden 327-211 to 326-212.

Keeping it simple: (same as last week) For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina and make up for being behind in Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls of each of those 6 states.

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