After 15 straight weeks of improvement, Donald Trump’s odds took a break. His payout increased from 2.77X to 2.79X. These are still significantly better odds from the 3.29X he had before the start of the streak. Trump has higher odds than the next four candidates combined.
Last week, Elizabeth Warren announced she is not running. Her odds took a hit from 13.3X to 15.5X. A week later, her odds rebounded to 13.4X which was enough for her to jump into 4th place. She was in 3rd two weeks ago, ahead of Bernie Sanders.
Joe Biden hasn’t ruled out running in 2020 and this week engaged in a war of words with Trump. Could this be a preview of what is to come in 2020? Biden’s odds improved from 18.5X to 16.8X. These are the top odds he has had this election cycle.
Donald Trump’s odds once again saw very little movement with the payout moving from 3.29X to 3.28X. He has been in a very tight range the last 8 weeks (3.25X to 3.35X). He remains more than three times more likely to win than the next challenger.
Mark Zuckerberg saw a slight improvement for the third straight week. He moved this week from 25.5X to 24.8X which was enough for him to move into 7th place overall. He was at 26.3X just four weeks ago.
The big news on the week was Al Franken’s resignation among sexual assault accusations. His payout increased from 49X to 58.4X. That was enough to drop him from 21st place to 28th place. He will likely drop more next week as not all sites have updated their odds. Franken was as high as 18th place just 5 weeks ago.
The straw that finally broke the camel’s back for Franken may have been fellow Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand calling for his resignation. Her odds improved with the increase in profile. Her payout decreased from 47.7X to 45.8X, which pushed her from 19th place to 18th place. She seems to be making sexual assault the focus of her career.
Donald Trump’s odds improved for the second week in a row as his payout dropped from 3.31X to 3.27X, which is where it was four weeks ago. He has nearly identical probability of winning as the next four competitors combined.
The hottest name continues to be Kamala Harris. She remains in 4th place but her payout dropped once again, this time from 14.6X to 14.3X. She has widened her lead over Sanders and is catching up with Warren who is at 11.7X. Both were profiled as part of the “Big Four” Women Democrats for 2020.
The two highest non politicians remain Michelle Obama and Mark Zuckerberg. Obama is currently in 6th place but her payout has been increasing. It is currently at 22.3X up from 21.6X the previous week. She was at 18.2X ten weeks ago.
Zuckerberg on the other hand improved this week from a payout of 26.3X to 25.7X. This is the lowest payout in 4 weeks and moves him from 8th place to 7th place.
