Category Archives: Yang 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds remained flat; Harris finally reverses downward trend; Yang at all time high, drawing attention from both Sanders and Trump supporters

Trump’s odds remained flat to last week’s 2.01X, close to his all time high set at the start of August of 1.90X, but also tied for his lowest odds in 10 weeks. Trump has seen his average net favorability rating drop from an average of -10 to the current -12 over those 70 days. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped from 48.9% to 48.0%, as their combined odds increased from 1.92X to 1.86X.

Although Elizabeth Warren (5.65X last week to 5.52X) and Bernie Sanders (11.1X last week vs. 10.9X this week) kept their momentum, the big movers for the Democrats this week were Kamala Harris and Andrew Yang.

Harris came into this week dropping in seven straight weeks over which her odds changed from 5.57X to last week’s 15.2X. She reversed that trend this week by improving to 14.3X. According to a Trump aide, she’s the candidate they most fear as she is the least flawed. Who knows if that’s truly what the Trump campaign believes or if that’s an attempt to help her bump Warren/Biden/Sanders down from the top.

Andrew Yang improved from 26.2X to 21.8X putting more space between his odds and those of Buttigieg, whom he passed last week. This is a new all time high for Yang. Oddly enough, he’s now drawing support from supporters of both Sanders and Trump.

Here are the the candidates that have a better than 200 to 1 shot.

Here’s a 6 month trend of the top 5 candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, JoeWalsh 2020, Sanders 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds see a small decline for fourth straight week; Warren continues to rise setting another high; Yang jumps Buttigieg for 5th place; Joe Walsh makes debut on the odds

Donald Trump saw his fourth straight drop in a row this week with the odds moving from 1.98X to 2.01X. Those are his lowest odds in 9 weeks. He’s not far off his all time however of 1.90X which he was at prior to this streak. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped from 49.3% to 48.9%. The combined odds of the top 5 Democrats is now at 1.92X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to rise, increasing her odds from 5.90X to 5.65X, another new high. She has improved in 18 of the last 19 weeks. She was at 34X when this rise started in late April.

Bernie Sanders had a good week as well with his odds rising from 12.0X to 11.1X. He now has a 5 week winning streak. This is the highest he has been in 11 weeks. He basically has half the odds of Warren.

Andrew Yang jumped into the 5th spot this week partly as a result of his gains and partly due to Pete Buttigieg’s continued continued struggles. Yang’s odds jumped from 28.5X to 26.2X, his highest in 9 weeks. Yang has a hardcore following that has claimed media bias against the candidate including this week by CNN. Buttigieg’s odds dropped from 24.4X to 28.7X, his lowest since the end of March. He has now declined the last 10 weeks. His campaign claims they are ready for “phase three”.

A couple of names that didn’t make the third Democratic debate saw big drops. Tulsi Gabbard dropped from 45.7X to 66.9X, her lowest in over 2 years (since March 2017). Tom Steyer couldn’t buy his way into the debate (although he’s likely to do so for the next debate). His odds dropped from 120.9X to 146.9X. They are still above the 200+ odds he’s been at prior to three weeks ago.

Joe Walsh formally announced his attempt to take on Trump in the Republican primary last Sunday. He makes his debut in the odds this week at 169X and in 22nd place.

Here are the odds for all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Castro 2020, de Blasio 2020, Delaney 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Inslee 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

First debate causes shakeup as Harris comes away the big winner at Biden’s expense. Debate and weeks of momentum finally have Warren move ahead of Sanders. Trump continues to cruise near all time highs

The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.

Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.

The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.

The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.

In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.

Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:

Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :

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