Category Archives: Yang 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump sees small drop from last week’s all time high; Sanders continues to be hot, jumps Biden for Democratic lead; Bloomberg’s odds continue to strengthen, showing he’s a real possibility;

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop from last week’s all time high of 1.72X to 1.75X, the second highest all time. This as the Senate started its Impeachment Trial. At the same time, the odds of the top 5 Democrats saw a small increase from 2.05X to 2.00X. This puts Trump’s odds against those 5 top Democrats combined at 53.3%, down from last week’s high of 54.3%.

The odds on the Democratic side are beginning to suggest it’s a three person race for that nomination.

Bernie Sanders continued to be the hottest name, and seems to be peaking at the right time. His odds improved from 6.47X to 5.61X, a new all time high for him. This also allowed him to jump over Joe Biden for the highest odds on the Democratic side.

The other recent name that has been surging is Michael Bloomberg. It seems that even Democratic Party insiders are beginning to accept that his nomination is a real possibility. His odds jumped from 13.4X to 12.0X, a new high for him. He remained in 3rd place for the Democrats, a position he reached two weeks ago.

All other major Democratic nominees saw drops:

  • Biden from 5.6X to 5.9X, his lowest in 4 weeks
  • Warren from 20.5X to 23.8X, her lowest since May 2019
  • Buttigieg from 31.2X to 37.7X, his lowest since March 2019
  • Yang from 36.3X to 44.2X, his lowest since March 2019
  • Klobuchar from 82.7X to 99.8X, her lowest since November 2019

Here is a trend of the top Democratic candidates and the odds of the top 20:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Small odds improvement results in another new high for Trump; Biden strengthens lead while Sanders continues hot streak; Warren’s slowing momentum reflected in fundraising; Buttigieg’s odds continue downward trend with attacks from his left and right

Donald Trump’s odds had a small move up this week but that helped him reach another new high. Trump’s odds improved from 1.88X to 1.85X. His previous high was 1.86X reached two weeks ago. Interestingly, his odds against the top 5 Democrats decreased a bit from 52.0% to 51.7%, as the Democratic odds consolidated to the top. The odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 2.03X to 1.98X.

The top two Democrats continued their hot streak. Joe Biden has recently focused on Iowa and that seems to be helping his fortunes. His odds improved from last week’s 5.98X to 5.51X. These are his highest odds in over 6 months. His odds have now improved in 9 of the last 11 weeks.

Bernie Sanders continued his post heart attack momentum and had a blowout fundraising quarter. His odds for the week improved from 8.83X to 7.66X. He has now improved for 12 weeks in a row and he now has his highest odds since the middle of May 2019.

Just as Biden and Bernie continued to improve, rivals Warren and Buttigieg continued their recent declines. Warren raised less money in Q4 than in Q3 and only two thirds of what Sanders raised. Her odds for the week dropped from 12.2X to 13.0X. That is 12 straight weeks of declines (same number of weeks as Bernie’s improvements). These are her lowest odds since the middle of June.

Pete Buttigieg’s rise in October and November made him a target for both other Democrats and Trump over the last month. Warren and Sanders supporters pointed out his relationship with the 1%, while the President began accusing him of being a “Pretend Christian”. Despite Buttigieg’s strong fundraising (ahead of Biden), these attacks from both sides seem to be having a negative impact on his odds. He dropped this week from 15.3X to 16.9X. This is his fifth drop in a row and his lowest point in 11 weeks.

A couple of disconnects between odds and news occurred this week for Bloomberg and Yang.

Michael Bloomberg has spent a fortune on advertising and that is having an impact. A recent poll showed him tied for third with Warren. His odds however have dropped in recent weeks from 14.8X to begin December to the current 17.6X.

Andrew Yang had an impressive grassroots fundraising effort in Q4, but his odds dropped from 15.7X to 17.6X, his lowest in 6 weeks.

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds for anyone with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds see slight bump ending streak; Warren continues to be hottest name, becoming target of rivals; Harris keeps dropping, is all in on Iowa; Money being bet on Clinton keeps pushing up odds

Donald Trump’s odds rose slightly for the first time in seven weeks. They are now at 2.02X compared to last week’s 2.03X. All time high is 1.90X at the start of August (prior to the 6 week streak). His odds against the top 5 Democratic candidates also rose from 48.1% to 48.5% partly from his improvement and partly from a decrease in their combined odds which worsened from 1.87X to 1.90X.

The hottest candidate continued to be Elizabeth Warren. She reached another new high at 4.89X up from 5.05X. She has now been up in 21 of the last 22 weeks. She was in 8th place at 34.0X just before the start of the streak at the end of April. Even though Warren has been the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for the last 6 weeks (odds acting as leading indicator), she is finally starting to get treated like it by her pears, and that’s not necessarily a good thing as other 2020 rivals will now start taking their shots to unseat her.

The coldest name remained Kamala Harris. She dropped from 18.9X to 23.1X. She peaked in the middle of July at 5.57X and has seen the bottom drop out of her odds. She is now reportedly running a new “Iowa-or-bust” strategy.

This week’s drop by Harris allowed Andrew Yang to jump into 5th place overall. He improved from 22.9X to 21.9X. Here’s a quick interview where Yang predicts the nickname Trump will give him.

For the second straight week, the odds for Hillary Clinton have moved without any news. The explanation is money being put on her as this article suggests. Two weeks ago she sat at 90X and in 12th place. Since then her odds jumped to 70X and 9th place last week, and 54X and 8th place this week (jumping Cory Booker). This is the highest she has been in nearly 2.5 years!

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

Here is a trend of the top candidates:

For updates follow us on twitter

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