Donald Trump’s odds had a small move up this week but that helped him reach another new high. Trump’s odds improved from 1.88X to 1.85X. His previous high was 1.86X reached two weeks ago. Interestingly, his odds against the top 5 Democrats decreased a bit from 52.0% to 51.7%, as the Democratic odds consolidated to the top. The odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 2.03X to 1.98X.

The top two Democrats continued their hot streak. Joe Biden has recently focused on Iowa and that seems to be helping his fortunes. His odds improved from last week’s 5.98X to 5.51X. These are his highest odds in over 6 months. His odds have now improved in 9 of the last 11 weeks.

Bernie Sanders continued his post heart attack momentum and had a blowout fundraising quarter. His odds for the week improved from 8.83X to 7.66X. He has now improved for 12 weeks in a row and he now has his highest odds since the middle of May 2019.

Just as Biden and Bernie continued to improve, rivals Warren and Buttigieg continued their recent declines. Warren raised less money in Q4 than in Q3 and only two thirds of what Sanders raised. Her odds for the week dropped from 12.2X to 13.0X. That is 12 straight weeks of declines (same number of weeks as Bernie’s improvements). These are her lowest odds since the middle of June.

Pete Buttigieg’s rise in October and November made him a target for both other Democrats and Trump over the last month. Warren and Sanders supporters pointed out his relationship with the 1%, while the President began accusing him of being a “Pretend Christian”. Despite Buttigieg’s strong fundraising (ahead of Biden), these attacks from both sides seem to be having a negative impact on his odds. He dropped this week from 15.3X to 16.9X. This is his fifth drop in a row and his lowest point in 11 weeks.

A couple of disconnects between odds and news occurred this week for Bloomberg and Yang.

Michael Bloomberg has spent a fortune on advertising and that is having an impact. A recent poll showed him tied for third with Warren. His odds however have dropped in recent weeks from 14.8X to begin December to the current 17.6X.

Andrew Yang had an impressive grassroots fundraising effort in Q4, but his odds dropped from 15.7X to 17.6X, his lowest in 6 weeks.

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds for anyone with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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