Donald Trump continued to be fairly steady at the top. His payout has ranged between 2.4x and 2.5x in each of the last 8 weeks. He has seen his probability go down a little bit. It is at its lowest in the last 5 weeks at 25.5%. He peaked at 26.9% five weeks ago.
It looks like Elizabeth Warren made the most of her being silenced on the Senate floor. She remains in 3rd overall , but her payout dropped from 10.7X the prior week to 9.8X. Her probability is now at 6.6% but remains behind Mike Pence’s 7.4% for second place.
Paul Ryan took a little hit with his payout moving from 26.4X to 26.9X. That allowed Bernie Sanders to hop over him for 7th place.
The big mover on the week, and of the last 3 weeks has been Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. Four weeks ago, Zuckerberg was in 45th place with a payout of 107.3X. Reports started coming out about the possibility of him running. He immediately shot up to 32nd place with a payout of 80X. This week he was up once again now to 19th place with the payout decreasing to just 54.2X.
There was very little change in the odds this week. In fact the top four have been the same since I started tracking the new odds two weeks after the elections.
Donald Trump continues to lead at 26.5% and a payout of 2.4 to 1. The payout has stabilized at 2.4, after starting out at 2.6.
The next three include Mike Pence at 8.8 to 1, Elizabeth Warren at 10.8 to 1, and Michelle Obama at 13.1 to 1.
Cory Booker has been a fairly consistent number 5 with a current payout of 23.7 to 1 and Hillary Clinton has ranged between 11th and her current 6th place at 25 to 1.
Donald Trump maintained his healthy lead coming in at a probability of 27.2% while the next five candidates combined were at 25.8%. Currently the average payout for betting on Trump is 2.6 to 1.
There was no movement in the top 6 candidates although Elizabeth Warren, who is in 3rd behind Mike Pence, improved her probabilty from 6.0% to 6.3%. Every $1 bet her could potentially yield $11.1.
Hillary Clinton moved from 9th place to 7th place, the highest she has been. Her payout is at 25.7 to 1.
The betting odds overall got a bit more competitive between the different oddsmakers as evidenced by Trump’s payout moving from an average of 2.5 to 1 last week to 2.6 to 1. That should have meant his probability (as computed by combining with all other payouts) should have decreased. Instead it increased from 26.6% to 27.2%.
