Category Archives: Warren 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bullock 2020, de Blasio 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump reaches another high in odds despite polls showing top Dems ahead; Biden’s momentum continues doubling odds in 6 weeks; A hot Warren jumps a once hot Beto; De Blasio becomes 23rd Dem candidate

Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week at 2.10X up from last week’s previous high of 2.18X. He has now either been tied or achieved a new high the last 12 weeks. The odds have achieved these highs despite recent polls, including this one from Fox News, showing the top 3 Democrats would beat Trump head to head.

The hottest name continues to be Joe Biden. He achieved another new high improving from 6.11X to 5.84X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks, nearly doubling his odds since. He was at 10.7X just 6 weeks ago. Biden has been ramping up his campaign including making Philadelphia (with Pennsylvania a must win state) his headquarters.

The other name for the Democrats gaining momentum is Elizabeth Warren. She improved once again from 23.6X to 22.7X. She has now improved for four straight weeks and just passed Beto for 6th place. Her growth seems to be coming with progressives at the expense of Bernie Sanders. Sanders is still ahead of her in 3rd place with nearly 3 times the odds (7.69X).

What’s another week without more candidates for the Democrats. This week saw candidates #22 and 23. First came Montana Governor Steve Bullock. Bullock, whose credentials include being a Democratic Governor in a Red state, didn’t make much of a splash. His odds actually dropped from 141.4X to 145.8X. He is in 35th place overall.

Next came NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. His announcement had a bigger impact in the odds. He rocketed from 166.9X to 124.3X moving him up from 45th to 21st place.

Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Abrams 2020, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds flat to last week’s new high; Biden’s jumps Sanders despite attacks from both sides; Warren gaining momentum; Abrams decision not to run for Senate sparks speculation; Bennet enters race

Donald Trump’s odds remained flat to last week at 2.18X, which is their high for this election cycle. Prior to that he had improved for 9 straight weeks. Keep in mind when it’s finally a two person race, and if both candidates are tied, the odds will likely be 1.80X for each candidate.

The hottest candidate once again was Joe Biden, surpassing Bernie Sanders for second place overall. His odds rose from 8.18X to 6.26X. This was not only a new high for him. It was also the high for anyone not named Trump. Biden’s previous high was 7.18X in March (prior to improper touching allegations). It will be interesting to see if Biden can remain on top as he gets attacked from all sides including attacks from the President, attacks from his left, and from other unaffiliated parties.

Prior to Biden this week, the field’s previous high was Kamala Harris at 6.28X in February. Since then the California Democrat has declined to this week’s 11.3X and 4th place overall.

Last week, we talked about Elizabeth Warren possibly reaching a bottom. Her odds improved for a second week in a row improving from 32.0X to 24.7X. This is now the highest she has been in 9 weeks. The “policy” candidate seems to be gaining momentum on her promise to erase $50,000 of student debt.

Stacey Abrams announced she will not run for the Senate in 2020, and that fueled speculation she may be running for a bigger office. Her odds jumped from last week’s 145.9X and 35th place to 90.6X and 13th place, by far the highest she has been.

What’s another week without another Democrat announcing they are running. Michael Bennett made it official, and like many other Democrats that are not in the top tier, his odds dropped on the announcement, for Bennett from 136.1X and 32nd place to 152.6X and 35th place. He is number 22 in the field. One potential candidate for next week is NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. He is currently in 42nd place at 165.5X.

Here are the list of 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot
(last week there were 71):

For updates follow me on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Moulton 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump reaches a new high for third straight week; Biden soars as he finally makes it official; Did Warren finally bottom? Moulton enters race as a moderate Democrat

Donald Trump’s odds continued rising for the 9th straight week. This week they were up from 2.20X to 2.18X. At the start of the streak, the odds were 2.93X. This is the third straight week where Trump has reached a new high. The past couple of weeks have seen a rare diversion between Trump’s net approval rating (dropping from -10 to -12) and the betting odds. It’s clear some money was on the sidelines waiting for the Mueller report and have since been put on the President getting re-elected.

The much awaited entry of Joe Biden finally took place this week. The former VP stumbled in his first interview, raised more money than other Democrats on their first day, and was welcomed by Trump to the race with a nickname. His odds soared from 10.3X last week to 8.18X this week, enough for him to jump over Kamala Harris for 3rd place overall. These are the highest odds he has had since allegations of unwanted touching came out a month ago.

Elizabeth Warren has had a rather disappointing time so far this election season. The Senator reached a high in February of 2017 when she was in 3rd place at 9.7X. She has slowly drifted down since and was at her lowest point of the cycle last week at 34.0X and in 8th place. Her odds may have finally bottomed as they had a small improvement to 32.0X. It will be interesting to see how Warren’s policy-based run does once the debates begin.

Another candidate that announced this week was Seth Moulton. The Marine veteran positioned himself as more moderate than Sanders and Warren. The oddsmakers weren’t impressed as his odds dropped from 155.2X to 174.6X. He is in 55th place this week.

Here are the 71 candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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