Donald Trump’s odds remained flat to last week at 2.18X, which is their high for this election cycle. Prior to that he had improved for 9 straight weeks. Keep in mind when it’s finally a two person race, and if both candidates are tied, the odds will likely be 1.80X for each candidate.
The hottest candidate once again was Joe Biden, surpassing Bernie Sanders for second place overall. His odds rose from 8.18X to 6.26X. This was not only a new high for him. It was also the high for anyone not named Trump. Biden’s previous high was 7.18X in March (prior to improper touching allegations). It will be interesting to see if Biden can remain on top as he gets attacked from all sides including attacks from the President, attacks from his left, and from other unaffiliated parties.
Prior to Biden this week, the field’s previous high was Kamala Harris at 6.28X in February. Since then the California Democrat has declined to this week’s 11.3X and 4th place overall.
Last week, we talked about Elizabeth Warren possibly reaching a bottom. Her odds improved for a second week in a row improving from 32.0X to 24.7X. This is now the highest she has been in 9 weeks. The “policy” candidate seems to be gaining momentum on her promise to erase $50,000 of student debt.
Stacey Abrams announced she will not run for the Senate in 2020, and that fueled speculation she may be running for a bigger office. Her odds jumped from last week’s 145.9X and 35th place to 90.6X and 13th place, by far the highest she has been.
What’s another week without another Democrat announcing they are running. Michael Bennett made it official, and like many other Democrats that are not in the top tier, his odds dropped on the announcement, for Bennett from 136.1X and 32nd place to 152.6X and 35th place. He is number 22 in the field. One potential candidate for next week is NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. He is currently in 42nd place at 165.5X.
Here are the list of 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot
(last week there were 71):
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