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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Franken 2020, Schultz 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized

Donald Trump Sees a Small Decline for Second Week in a Row; Joe Biden Biggest Move Up; Al Franken, Howard Schultz Reach New Highs

For the second straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a small decline.  This week it was from 3.27X to 3.34X.  It appears his trip to Asia didn’t help with these odds being the lowest in four weeks.

Joe Biden saw the biggest jump.  His payout dropped from 28X to 26X which was enough to move him from 11th overall to 7th.  He was last in 7th place back in July.  Multiple reports now say he is leaning towards running.

Al Franken was another Democrat to see his odds jump. He moved from 21st place to 18th place as his payout dropped from 49.5X to 45.9X.  This is the highest he has been this cycle.

Howard Schultz improved from 35th place to 27th place as his payout dropped from 66.5X to 55.0X.  This is a new high for the Starbucks Chairman. Although he has denied he is running, his answers leave man speculating.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 858

Uncategorized

Updated Election Odds: Trump Continues with Large but Shrinking Lead; Sanders Passes Booker; Obama Declines, Kasich Improves

Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop with his payout increasing from 2.8X to 2.9X.  The payout has been slowly climbing since bottoming at 2.4X the week of the inauguration.  The probability dropped to 22.2% from 22.7% last week and 26.5% at the inauguration. He still has a large lead eclipsing the next four candidates combined.

Michelle Obama remained in 4th place overall but her odds decreased from from 4.5% to 4.3% as the payout increased from 14.2X to 14.8X.

Despite the fact that he will be 79 at the next election, Bernie Sanders’ odds keep increasing.  He has been keeping up his profile via interviews  and that seems to have helped.  He jumps Cory Booker for 6th place, the highest he has been.  His payout decreased from 24.5X to 22.5X.

John Kasich is playing the moderate alternative to Trump and he saw his odds improve as he moved from 31st place to 28th place. The payout decreased from 67.4X to 65.5X.

Here are the full odds:

 

Follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 707

Uncategorized

Updated Election Odds: Trump’s Odds Reflect a Tough Week; Interestingly, Ryan Rises; Obama, Cuban, and Zuckerberg Rise

Donald Trump’s tough week translated into decreased odds.  Trump’s payout increased from 2.7X to 2.8X.  This is the highest it has been.  Trump was as low as 2.4X two months ago.  Although this change might seem small, it’s a 16% increase in payout.  The implied probability has also taken a hit, dropping from 23.7% to 22.7% in a week.  It peaked at 26.9% in the middle of January. He still has as much odds as the next four combined.

Oddly enough, one would argue Paul Ryan also had a bad week but his odds actually rebounded from last week.  He moved up to 9th place from 10th and his payout dropped from from 28.5X to 27.5X.  He is still lower than two weeks ago when he was in 8th place with a payout of 26.2X.

Michelle Obama remained in 4th place but her odds improved as the payout decreased from 14.7X to 14.2X.  That is her lowest payout of the month.

Mark Cuban was the biggest mover amongst the outsiders.  His payout dropped from 63.7X to 51.0X moving him from 25th place to 23rd place.

Mark Zuckerberg continued his hot streak moving from 18th place to 15th place with the payout dropping from 41.4X to 36.8X.  Two months ago he was in 45th place with a payout of 107X.

Here are the full odds:

Follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 805