Biden matched his all time high from four weeks ago at 1.60X
Trump near his recent low at 2.55X
Implied odds for Biden now at 61.4%
Here’s the overall odds and trend:
On the VP side Harris’ lead shrinks with Rice and Bass showing the biggest improvements. Here’s the VP Odds:
Below are the electoral projections from 6 different sources. The average currently is 314 Biden to 224 for Trump
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Views – 613Joe Biden held the lead for a 6th straight week, although for a second straight week Trump closed on that lead. Biden’s odds dropped from 1.63X to 1.65X, his lowest in three weeks. Donald Trump improved from 2.55X to 2.46X, his highest in three weeks. The implied head to head edge to Biden dropped from 61.0% to 59.8%.
Kanye West announced he would be running last weekend, and makes his return to the odds at 78.6X, enough for 5th place, behind Clinton and Pence. His previous high was all the way back in January 2017 at 101X.
Here are the full odds:
On the VP side, Kamala Harris continued to have a large lead, although her odds dropped from 2.0X to 2.2X. Two names have been hot the last two weeks. Susan Rice is in second place improving from 11.1X two weeks ago to 8.3X last week to 6.1X this week. Tammy Duckworth is the other hot name improving from 40.0X three weeks ago to 10.0X last week, to the current 7.4X.
Here are the full odds:
Very few polls took place this week
As a result, we are not making changes and holding the forecast at 337 Biden 201 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:
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Views – 699The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.
Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.
The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.
The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.
In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.
Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:
Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :
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