Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Obama 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds lead over Biden at a 4-week low; Michigan and Pennsylvania polls continue to show Biden ahead; Obama’s odds for top spot jump as talk of her as a VP candidate heat up; Top two VP candidates remain Harris and Klobuchar

Trump’s odds dropped from 1.88X to 1.92X, his lowest odds in four weeks. The odds are finally starting to catch up to the recent drops in his favorability: dropped from 44.0% last week to 43.5% this week. They were at a high of 45.8% three weeks ago when they started dropping.

Joe Biden’s odds improved from 2.19X to 2.13X, his highest since the middle of March. His relative odds against Trump improved from 46.2% to 47.3%, a 4 week high.

The biggest move interestingly was in Michelle Obama’s odds as they improved from 113.2X to 94.2X, her highest since December 2019. There was numerous speculation of her being a possible VP candidate, including in an interview with Biden’s wife.

Here are the full odds:

The speculation is growing on the possible VP candidates for Biden. The odds would suggest there’s a 50% chance of either Harris or Klobuchar, and 50% of all other candidates.

Here are the full odds:

One the state polling side, Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll showing Tie in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +4 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +3 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Mich
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Penn
  • Poll showing Biden +6 in Penn
  • Poll showing Trump +5 in Tex

We’re still keeping Florida as a tossup. The polls reinforced the view on Mich and Penn going to Biden.

As a result projections remained the same as last week of 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds highest since the start of March while Biden’s odds jump with endorsements from Sanders, Warren, and Obama; Poll shows AZ in Biden’s column, resulting in a bigger electoral lead

This week, Trump’s odds improved from 1.89X to 1.88X, his highest since the first week in March. This despite recent drops in his favorability: dropped from 44.4% last week and 45.8% two weeks ago to 44.0% this week.

Joe Biden’s odds improved from 2.24X to 2.19X, his highest since the middle of March. This week was a big endorsement week for the former VP as Sanders, Warren, and Obama all endorsed Biden.

The relative odds would suggest Trump has a 53.8% to 46.2% edge over Biden, the lowest in the last three weeks.

Here are the full odds:

Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll Showing Biden +1 in NC
  • Poll showing Trump +7 in NC
  • Poll showing Biden +9 in AZ

That moved the projection of AZ from split to Biden.

Current projection now of 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Cuomo 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Both Trump and Biden see small improvement in odds; Cuomo mania calms down while VP speculation helps Kamala’s odds; Michigan and Pennsylvania likely to be keys to the election

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement from 1.92X to 1.89X. These are high highest odds since 3/7. He is still quite a ways behind his peak of 1.59X last achieved on 2/22. There has been a small slip in favoribility ratings the last few days after it improved significantly in the early days of COVID-19 (went from an average of 42% second week of March to 46% last weekend to the current 44.5%)

Joe Biden’s odds also saw a small improvement to 2.24X from 2.25X. That is an all time high. The small jump in odds for the week when Bernie Sanders decided to get out, shows that fact was anticipated in the market. The Trump and Biden odds combined imply that Trump now has a 54.2% chance of winning, vs last week’s 54.0%.

The frenzy over Cuomo faded a bit with his odds dropping from last week’s 29.0X to this week’s 34.6X. As a result Trump’s implied odds against Biden and Cuomo combined dropped from 52.1% to 52.7%.

Out of no where, Kamala Harris’ odds came back to life as speculation rose that she might be the VP candidate. Her odds are currently at 114.5X. She was last on the board at the end of the year at 438.2X.

Here are the odds:

With Biden basically winning the nomination, we’ll change the focus now to the electoral map. We will base the predictions on the most recent polling. Polling at the state level is still very sporadic and it’s still VERY EARLY. The polling right now would suggest a disconnect between the betting odds and the math from the polls. See below. Currently projecting Biden to win 310 to 228. If all of the split states (in yellow below) go Trump’s way, it would be a 269-269 tie. If all swing states go Biden’s way it would be 352 to 186 Biden win.

Again this is early, but the big changes vs. last election right now are Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20). They seem to have a high chance of moving to Biden based on polls. That’s a 72 point swing.

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