Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bennett 2020, Biden 2020, Trump 2020, Weld 2020

Trump’s Odds Settling in at New High; Biden’s odds improve again as Trump proclaims him as the likely Democratic candidate; Weld, the sole and long shot Republican competitor, increases odds; Bennet’s sees odds lift as he is attacked from his left

Donald Trump’s odds seem to have settled around a new high at 2.18X. He has been at these odds the last three weeks. They are roughly 50% higher than his low at 3.46X back in Sept 2017.

Although the primaries have not even started, the past few weeks have made the election seem like a contest between Trump and Biden. Trump says he sees parallels between his 2016 candidacy and Biden’s in 2020. Biden’s odds continued improving, moving from 6.26X last week to 6.11X, another new high for anyone not named Trump. He has now improved the last 4 weeks.

Bill Weld has been ignored as a primary challenger to Trump. His odds have been improving the last couple of weeks jumping from 181.7X and 61st place three weeks ago, to 132.8X and 26th place, to this week’s 119.2X and 20th place. He passed fellow Republican and Trump critic John Kasich with this latest improvement.

Michael Bennet has been in the race for only a week, but he’s already being attacked from his left. Could the attack ads help position him as a moderate? His odds improved during the week from 152.6X and 35th place to 130.3X and 24th place. These are his best odds in 6 weeks.


Below is the list of 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Abrams 2020, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds flat to last week’s new high; Biden’s jumps Sanders despite attacks from both sides; Warren gaining momentum; Abrams decision not to run for Senate sparks speculation; Bennet enters race

Donald Trump’s odds remained flat to last week at 2.18X, which is their high for this election cycle. Prior to that he had improved for 9 straight weeks. Keep in mind when it’s finally a two person race, and if both candidates are tied, the odds will likely be 1.80X for each candidate.

The hottest candidate once again was Joe Biden, surpassing Bernie Sanders for second place overall. His odds rose from 8.18X to 6.26X. This was not only a new high for him. It was also the high for anyone not named Trump. Biden’s previous high was 7.18X in March (prior to improper touching allegations). It will be interesting to see if Biden can remain on top as he gets attacked from all sides including attacks from the President, attacks from his left, and from other unaffiliated parties.

Prior to Biden this week, the field’s previous high was Kamala Harris at 6.28X in February. Since then the California Democrat has declined to this week’s 11.3X and 4th place overall.

Last week, we talked about Elizabeth Warren possibly reaching a bottom. Her odds improved for a second week in a row improving from 32.0X to 24.7X. This is now the highest she has been in 9 weeks. The “policy” candidate seems to be gaining momentum on her promise to erase $50,000 of student debt.

Stacey Abrams announced she will not run for the Senate in 2020, and that fueled speculation she may be running for a bigger office. Her odds jumped from last week’s 145.9X and 35th place to 90.6X and 13th place, by far the highest she has been.

What’s another week without another Democrat announcing they are running. Michael Bennett made it official, and like many other Democrats that are not in the top tier, his odds dropped on the announcement, for Bennett from 136.1X and 32nd place to 152.6X and 35th place. He is number 22 in the field. One potential candidate for next week is NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. He is currently in 42nd place at 165.5X.

Here are the list of 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot
(last week there were 71):

For updates follow me on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Moulton 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump reaches a new high for third straight week; Biden soars as he finally makes it official; Did Warren finally bottom? Moulton enters race as a moderate Democrat

Donald Trump’s odds continued rising for the 9th straight week. This week they were up from 2.20X to 2.18X. At the start of the streak, the odds were 2.93X. This is the third straight week where Trump has reached a new high. The past couple of weeks have seen a rare diversion between Trump’s net approval rating (dropping from -10 to -12) and the betting odds. It’s clear some money was on the sidelines waiting for the Mueller report and have since been put on the President getting re-elected.

The much awaited entry of Joe Biden finally took place this week. The former VP stumbled in his first interview, raised more money than other Democrats on their first day, and was welcomed by Trump to the race with a nickname. His odds soared from 10.3X last week to 8.18X this week, enough for him to jump over Kamala Harris for 3rd place overall. These are the highest odds he has had since allegations of unwanted touching came out a month ago.

Elizabeth Warren has had a rather disappointing time so far this election season. The Senator reached a high in February of 2017 when she was in 3rd place at 9.7X. She has slowly drifted down since and was at her lowest point of the cycle last week at 34.0X and in 8th place. Her odds may have finally bottomed as they had a small improvement to 32.0X. It will be interesting to see how Warren’s policy-based run does once the debates begin.

Another candidate that announced this week was Seth Moulton. The Marine veteran positioned himself as more moderate than Sanders and Warren. The oddsmakers weren’t impressed as his odds dropped from 155.2X to 174.6X. He is in 55th place this week.

Here are the 71 candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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