Category Archives: Ryan_Tim 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Castro 2020, de Blasio 2020, Delaney 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Inslee 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

First debate causes shakeup as Harris comes away the big winner at Biden’s expense. Debate and weeks of momentum finally have Warren move ahead of Sanders. Trump continues to cruise near all time highs

The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.

Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.

The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.

The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.

In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.

Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:

Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Uncategorized

Trump near all time highs; Biden down on allegations; Buttigieg remains hottest name; Sanders leads in fundraising; Tim Ryan enters race

For the second week in a row, Donald Trump’s Odds saw a big increase, this time from 2.41X to 2.35X. His odds have now improved for six straight weeks and are the highest since the middle of August 2018 when they were at 2.33X. His all time high was a few weeks before that at 2.31X near the beginning of August 2018.

As we forecast last week when the news was breaking, allegations of making women feel uncomfortable have negatively impacted Joe Biden’s odds. He dropped from 7.96X to 9.66X. He was at 7.18X, his high for the cycle, just two weeks ago. He is now stating he wants to be the last candidate to announce he is running.

Biden’s misfortune seems to have given Michael Bloomberg’s candidacy some oxygen. Axios reported Bloomberg would enter if Biden falters and the “centrist lane were to open up”. His odds improved from 111.2X to 83.8X and he moved up from 31st place to 15th place. Bloomberg was at 30.8X and in 9th place when he announced he was not running beginning of March.

Once again the hottest name remained Pete Buttigieg. A recent poll had him tied with Elizabeth Warren in 5th place. His odds this week improved from 19.0X to 14.2X, another new high. He was at 76.1X just a month ago and at 104.9X two months ago.

The other Democratic candidate with momentum this week was Bernie Sanders. His odds jumped on the news he led all the candidates in fundraising. He improved from 7.31X to 7.09X. He remains the leading Democratic candidate in the odds.

What’s another week without another Democratic candidate announcing? This week it was Tim Ryan’s turn. The odds for the Ohio Rep. improved from 177.2X to 150.0X, and he jumped from 77th place to 50th place, still a long shot.

Here is the full set of odds:

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