Donald Trump continued to have over a 1 in 4 chance of winning at 25.6%. The payout for betting on Trump dropped once again to 2.4x from 2.5x last week and 2.6 the week prior.
The biggest mover was Kirsten Gillibrand. The Democratic Senator from NY moved from 18th place to 12th place as her odds increased from 1.8% to 2.4%. Her payout plummeted from 34.3x to 26.0x. She was ranked #4 in this recent list of potential Democratic candidates.
Paul Ryan has been making steady progress as well. He started in 12th place in the initial post elections list. He moved all the way up to 6th place last week and entered the top 5 this week. His probability is now at 3.2% and his payout is down to 19.8X.
Donald Trump continues to payout about 2.5 to 1 which gives him about a 26.5% probability relative to all other candidates. The top 5 remains unchanged with Mike Pence followed by Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and Cory Booker. They combine for 22.6% probability.
Paul Ryan had a big move up from 9th place to 6th place. A $1 bet on him currently yields $19.3 payout. He was in 12th place 4 weeks ago and has improved every week since.
Joe Biden had an eventful week. Early in the week some of his quotes lead to speculation about him running. He came back in the middle of the week saying “I have no intention of running”. The talk still pushed his odds up to 10th place after last week’s 14th place showing. Currently a $1 bet on him would payout $24.9 if he wins.
One name that was added to the odds is Newt Gingrich. He makes his debut in 34th place (out of 43) with a payout of $101 for every $1 bet.
11 new names were added to the odds to get to 39 in total. Mathematically, this addition caused the odds for most candidates to drop (total needs to be 100%). For example, Donald Trump continues to lead but dropped from 30.0% to 26.5%. He would have been flat without the additions.
Trump has higher odds than the next four competitors combined: Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and Cory Booker.
There were two new entries into the top 10. Andrew Cuomo, the governor of NY, moves from 9th to 7th place. Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, moves from 12th place to 10th place.
A few of the big names that got added this week were:
Kamala Harris, who just got elected to the Senate out of CA in 16th place
Kirsten Gillibrand, the Senator from NY in 17th place
Mark Cuban, the billionaire businessman in 20th place
Mitt Romney, who may be named Secretary of State, in 23rd place
