Category Archives: Obama 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Cortez Masto 2020, Kaine 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Rubio 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Updated Odds: Trump Continues Big Lead; Pence, Obama, and Kaine Improve; Catherine Cortez Masto Debuts in Odds

Trump continued to have a large enough lead to have better odds than the next five candidates combined.  Although the probability dropped from 27.2% to 25.5%, it was a result of the pool of candidates increasing.  The payout actually dropped from 2.6x to 2.5x.

Although there wasn’t any change in the order of the top 6, Mike Pence and Michelle Obama improved.  Pence, who is in 2nd place, saw payout drop from 9.5x last week to 8.3x.  Obama, who is in 4th, had her payout drop from 13.7x to 12.2x.  A sign that money is coming in for both.

Tim Kaine also improved.  He moved from 9th place to 7th place.  His payout dropped from 26.6x to 22.4x.

One new debut this week was Catherine Cortez Masto, the D Senator elect from Nevada (first female Latina Senator).  She makes an impressive debut in 12th place at 26x (based on odds from 3 sites).  That seems high for a relative unknown ahead of bigger names like Amy Klobuchar, Marco Rubio, and Bernie Sanders.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Gingrich 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Ryan 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated 2020 Election Odds: Trump Continues with Large Lead; Ryan with Big Move to 6th place; Biden Moves into 10th Place Despite Denying He is Running

Donald Trump continues to payout about 2.5 to 1 which gives him about a 26.5% probability relative to all other candidates.  The top 5 remains unchanged with Mike Pence followed by Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and Cory Booker.  They combine for 22.6% probability.

Paul Ryan had a big move up from 9th place to 6th place.  A $1 bet on him currently yields $19.3 payout.  He was in 12th place 4 weeks ago and has improved every week since.

Joe Biden had an eventful week. Early in the week some of his quotes lead to speculation about him running.  He came back in the middle of the week saying “I have no intention of running”. The talk still pushed his odds up to 10th place after last week’s 14th place showing.  Currently a $1 bet on him would payout $24.9 if he wins.

One name that was added to the odds is Newt Gingrich.  He makes his debut in 34th place (out of 43) with a payout of $101 for every $1 bet.

Here are the full odds:

2020-election-odds-12-10-16

 

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Cuomo 2020, Kaine 2020, Murphy 2020, Obama 2020, Paul 2020, Pence 2020, Rice 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated 2020 Odds: Donald Trump’s Odds as High as Next 5 Candidates; Clinton into top 10; Rice, Paul, Murphy Added to List

The top 6 remained unchanged with Donald Trump having higher odds than the next five candidates combined.  Donald Trump came in at 26.5% probability which was flat to last week.  He was followed by Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, Cory Booker, and Tim Kaine.  All five had a small decrease in odds as more names got added to the list.

Hillary Clinton was the biggest mover as she improved from 11th place to 8th place.

The big falls came from fellow Democrats Andrew Cuomo who went from 7th place to 10th place and Bernie Sanders who dropped from 9th place to 11th place.

Three additions came in at the same odds tied for 23rd place:

  • former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
  • Republican Senator from KY Rand Paul
  • Democractic Senator from CT Chris Murphy

Here are the full odds:

2020-election-odds-12-3-16

 

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 790